Although music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs was cleared of the most serious allegations during his recent federal trial, legal experts say he may still be heading to prison following his conviction on two felony counts of transporting individuals for the purpose of prostitution.
While a sentencing date is yet to be confirmed, the convictions carry significant weight — each charge is punishable by up to 10 years in federal prison. If served consecutively, Combs could theoretically face a 20-year sentence. However, legal professionals caution that the actual penalty could be much less severe than the statutory maximum.
“It’s highly unusual for judges to issue the full sentence allowed under the law,” said Daniel Richman, a Columbia Law School professor and former federal prosecutor in Manhattan. He noted that sentencing in federal cases involves a complex analysis shaped by numerous legal and personal factors.
Presiding over Combs’s trial is U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian, who is expected to begin his assessment using federal sentencing guidelines. These provide a structured framework based on the type of offense, specific circumstances of the case, and the defendant’s background, such as criminal history.
Despite the guidelines being a standard reference, adherence varies widely across jurisdictions. Nationwide, federal judges issued sentences within the guideline ranges in 67% of cases during the 2024 fiscal year. Yet, in the Southern District of New York, only 34.5% of sentences followed those benchmarks, with judges there often opting for lighter punishments.
According to Richman, Judge Subramanian will ultimately have significant discretion. “He can use the guidelines as a guidepost, especially after calculating them, but he is not bound by them,” Richman explained.
Douglas Berman, a sentencing law scholar at Ohio State University, emphasized that a wide spectrum of factors can be weighed during sentencing. “A judge may consider everything — from the defendant’s philanthropic efforts and business accomplishments to the severity of his actions or potential threat to society,” Berman noted.
Importantly, judges may also examine evidence tied to charges that did not result in a conviction, provided it is deemed relevant. Additionally, considerations about the defendant’s likelihood of reoffending will influence the final decision.
In court on Wednesday, Combs responded to the partial acquittal with a visible sense of relief — raising his fist and offering thanks to jurors. But analysts warn that his celebration may be premature.
“The real test lies in how assertive the prosecution is when it submits sentencing recommendations,” Berman added. “That can shape the tone of the entire process and sway the final outcome.”
As the entertainment world watches closely, the sentencing phase promises to be another dramatic chapter in the legal saga of one of hip-hop’s most influential figures.
