By Annette Ikponmwonba | September 16, 2026
Key Points
· SDP presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo warns petrol could rise to ₦5,000 per litre if President Bola Tinubu wins a second term
· He says the increase could be driven by continued downstream deregulation and the floating of the naira
· Adebayo argues Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol exposes the country to forex volatility since the product is dollar priced
· He projects that if the exchange rate hits ₦3,500 to a dollar, landing cost alone could exceed ₦4,000 per litre
· He criticized the removal of fuel subsidies, saying it has left consumers exposed to global crude price swings
· Adebayo also cited high interest rates, port challenges and distribution costs as additional risk factors
Main Story
Adewole Adebayo, presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party, has warned that petrol prices could climb to as much as ₦5,000 per litre if President Bola Tinubu secures a second term in office. The warning was issued in a statement from his campaign’s Chief Communications Adviser, Mark Adebayo, on Wednesday.
Adebayo tied the projected increase to two key factors, the Federal Government’s deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector and the continued floating of the naira. He argued that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported petrol leaves the country vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations, since the product is priced internationally in US dollars.
He laid out a specific scenario to back his projection, saying that if the exchange rate climbs to ₦3,500 to a dollar in the coming years, the landing cost of petrol alone could exceed ₦4,000 per litre before other charges are factored in. “A ₦5,000 fuel price is not a myth; it is basic mathematics based on the direction the Tinubu administration is walking,” he said.
The Issues
Adebayo’s warning taps into an ongoing national debate about the consequences of subsidy removal and naira floatation, two of the signature economic reforms of the Tinubu administration. Since these policies took effect, petrol prices have already climbed sharply from pre reform levels, and critics have repeatedly pointed to currency depreciation as a key driver of continued price pressure at the pump.
The core of Adebayo’s argument rests on Nigeria’s structural dependence on imported refined petroleum products, a vulnerability that ties domestic fuel prices directly to global crude markets and to the strength or weakness of the naira. Even with the emergence of domestic refining capacity from projects like the Dangote refinery, Nigeria’s broader downstream sector still faces exposure to these external pressures, particularly given ongoing global market uncertainty tied to instability in the Middle East.
There is also a political dimension to the timing of this warning. As an opposition presidential candidate, Adebayo’s projection functions as both an economic forecast and a campaign argument, positioning fuel price trajectory as a referendum on the direction of Tinubu’s economic policy ahead of the 2027 election.
What’s Being Said
Adebayo was sharply critical of the subsidy removal policy, arguing that it has left ordinary Nigerian consumers directly exposed to swings in global crude oil prices without the cushioning that subsidies previously provided, He also warned of downstream consequences beyond the pump, cautioning that any further increase in petrol prices could drive up transportation costs and subsequently push up prices for food and other essential goods, a chain reaction that has already played out to some degree since subsidy removal began, Beyond exchange rates and subsidies, Adebayo pointed to several compounding cost factors he says could worsen the situation further, including high interest rates, logistical challenges at Nigeria’s ports, and elevated distribution costs across the supply chain.
What’s Next
The trajectory of the naira against the dollar will likely remain the central variable to watch, given that Adebayo’s entire ₦5,000 projection is built around a specific exchange rate scenario. Whether the currency moves in that direction, stabilizes, or strengthens will significantly shape how credible this warning appears over time, It also remains to be seen how the Tinubu administration or APC officials will respond to the claim, and whether this becomes a recurring point of attack from opposition candidates as the 2027 campaign season develops further.
Bottom Line
Adebayo is using a specific mathematical projection tied to currency depreciation to turn petrol pricing into an early flashpoint of the 2027 campaign, betting that continued economic pressure on Nigerian consumers will make his warning resonate regardless of whether the exact ₦5,000 figure materializes.
