OPINION By Prince Debo Luwaji
If I were to place a bet on who would most likely emerge as Nigeria’s next president in 2027 based on facts on ground today, I will consider it safe and cheap to cast my lot with PBAT, and no amount of money involved in that bet would be a risk. It became necessary for me to be frontal about this prediction straightaway in view of a satirical piece I wrote recently which, from early sampling, appeared to have been taken on its face value (see OSUN 2026 Elections: Tinubu remains distrustful unless he loses in 2027).
The substance of that piece was that notwithstanding the neutrality and statesmanship demonstrated by the president before, during and after the recent Osun elections which produced the people’s popular choice – an election in which the incumbency factor also played a key part, his own fate in the presidential election of 2027 is prejudged doomed already by the opposition who, though have not shown enough capacity to unseat him, are waiting to taint any elections that reproduced Tinubu next year as neither free nor fair.
I am neither a member nor a sympathiser of APC. On the other hand, I actually like the idea of a strong opposition. In a general sense, I always find myself supporting the underdog in any contest, provided the so-called underdog has pulled his weight well enough to deserve an upset. Take the game of football for instance, I have no particular EPL club that I follow as a die-hard fan like many Nigerians do. But I love champions because I know what it takes to reach and stay at the top. In this wise, I found the Pep Gaurdiola’s years at Manchester City quite interesting. Yet, I regarded their previous dominance of the English Premiership
distasteful and was always looking forward to see them restrained or even defeated in any of their games. Nearly does not kill a bird, which explains why Arsenal would struggle for more than twenty years before becoming the EPL champion again. In the intervening years, they were runners up for three seasons back-to-back, all the while improving their competitiveness by buying the right players to block noticeable loopholes. At the end, even before the EPL 2025/2026 season had kicked off, it was a cheap guess that the completeness of the Arsenal team would see them snatch the crown from the serial champion Man-city.
Back to politics, the present opposition appears a total mismatch to a dye- in-the wool politician like Tinubu whose trajectory in public service had demonstrated decades of brick-upon-brick build up to becoming the president of Nigeria. The nemesis some vested interests feared in an MKO Abiola’s presidency would seem to have reproduced itself in full measure in a president that is independent in his actions, his sweeping reforms, restructuring and realigning institutions and policies in manners that are dangerous to entrenched interests. Nowhere is the frustration of the opposition evident than the recourse to all a manner of mudslinging and scandal-hunting in a moment that requires simple and consistent answers to “How and what exactly would you do differently”?
Keen observers of politics and electioneering in any democracy would tell you that winners and losers in every election are never so difficult to predict. It is in very rare cases that popular projections turn out completely off the mark. From Donald Trumps’ first election as the 45th president of the US in 2017, his loss to Joe Biden in 2021 and his return to the American presidency in 2025, to Buhari’s resounding win over Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, only uninformed few would have found any of those outcomes utterly surprising.
In the same vein, Tinubu’s victory in 2023 was foreclosed the moment he scaled the unimaginable huddles set on his path, even within his own party towards emerging the APC candidate. The facts are indisputable; the then outgoing President Buhari was neither here nor there and was at some point a tool in the hands of the manipulating influences working against Tinubu. The moment he capitulated to allowing all candidates try their luck at the APC primary at the Eagles Square, the cabal lost the game. Subsequent efforts made to stop Tinubu, including almost setting the entire nation on fire via an eleventh-hour currency change only amounted to a vain attempt at shutting the cage after the BAT had escaped.
To stop Bola Ahmed Tinubu from winning again in 2027, possibly by a far wider margin than he did in 2023, those interested in that outcome must first unite against a now more formidable incumbent who once emerged victorious even when the battle was fiercest. More importantly, they must clearly articulate their programmes to convince Nigerians that they offer credible alternative beyond merely mouthing the well-worn shibboleth of Nigerians are suffering.
Times are hard no doubt, perhaps harder for many than it ever was in recent history. But, even at this, when opposition spokesmen overplay this card too often, too loudly, it loses its effect for many obvious reasons. First, Nigerians were never in El Dorado; there is a sense in which ‘suffering” had been part and parcel of the life many Nigerians knew for ages, no thanks to the selfishness of the utterly corrupt political class who always left the entire populace with crumbs. Despite whatever they may be flaunting as their past records, almost all the present political contenders belong to that inglorious past that led us here.
Secondly, outside the scaremongering effect, the ‘all are suffering’ rhetoric would seem to ignore the many Nigerians who understand that reforms come with present pains, are resilient and are hoping for a better tomorrow that must not be disrupted all over again. There are many who are not suffering at all and not because they are linked with the government in any way. Indeed, there are those who are doing far better now than ever before. Indisputably, there are millions who through their faith, encouraged constantly in the messages of their spiritual leaders and the personal experiences reaped in their undertakings, have developed the conviction that their ultimate fate is not in any Ahmed, Abubakar, or Peter in power. All these are Nigerians as well and will vote according to their individual convictions.
Do not be deceived, these politicians are the same everywhere. Bola Ahmed Tinubu is who they all wish they were. The sweeping condemnation of the current administration by those in the opposition are a part of the game, after all, any concession that the ruling party performed well in any area whatsoever would automatically erode the very essence for which the opposition desires to be seen as a better alternative. Jonathan was a clueless leader and a complete disaster till his immediate successor made him look like a precious gem stupidly discarded.
Finally, it is important to note that mere mudslinging won’t wrestle the presidency from the incumbent. If it didn’t work against him the first time, to the extent that he was still elected despite the well-funded efforts of local and foreign hatchet-men engaged to discredit him, why should the same recycled stories matter now? Except the strategy is just to shame the president and not necessarily regain power from him, what is more pronounced now is sheer bitterness, name calling and repetitively fishing for perjury, as though the man at the centre of it all had left his opponents utterly befuddled, having covered all grounds on which allegations of non-performance can be proven. Certainly, this cannot be true. I believe there is much to be desired in governance today.
Paradoxically, with the self-styled evil genius too frail in old age to teach those interested in knowing why he remained a darling of majority in-spite of his history of manipulations, Bola Ahmed Tinubu remains one of the few living and active politicians who can mentor the rest on how to be effective in opposition and he has clearly stated he won’t go on that suicidal path now. So, until the so-called opposition gets their acts together, I predict waiting beyond the 2027 election circle, a la Arsenal.
Prince Debo Luwaji, an entrepreneur and political analyst, writes from Lagos. (luwajidebo@gmail.com)
