Nigeria has almost 400MW solar mini-grid potential, IRENA says

Key Points

• IRENA identifies almost 400MW of near-term solar PV mini-grid potential in Nigeria.
• Battery-backed mini-grids could expand electricity access across underserved communities.
• Agency urges stronger skills, certification, safety standards and metering systems.

Main Story

Nigeria has almost 400 megawatts (MW) of near-term solar photovoltaic (PV) mini-grid potential, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which has called for stronger policies and technical capacity to support the expansion of battery-backed systems.

IRENA made the recommendation in a report titled Unlocking battery storage potential for sustainable mini-grid electrification in West Africa, which assesses the potential of solar-storage mini-grids in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali and Senegal.

The agency said solar PV-based mini-grids would be important to achieving universal electricity access across the four West African countries.

Its analysis identified a near-term market of 568MW of solar PV mini-grids across the four countries, covering about 42,700 settlements and potentially serving around 21 million people.

Nigeria accounts for the largest share of the potential, at almost 400MW, followed by Burkina Faso with 91.7MW, Mali with 56.3MW and Senegal with 20.3MW.

IRENA said solar PV was suitable for more than 98 per cent of the sites assessed for mini-grid development, while hydropower was suitable for less than 2 per cent and wind for less than 0.1 per cent.

The agency said the findings showed the importance of creating an enabling environment for solar mini-grids equipped with battery storage as the market develops.

For Nigeria, it recommended developing technical skills, expanding certification programmes, establishing safety standards and promoting open metering systems.

IRENA also called for local-content policies tailored to the resources and capabilities available in each country, allowing local production of relevant equipment to develop as markets expand.

The report said mini-grids would become increasingly important as electricity demand rises and grid expansion faces constraints.

Under scenarios where grid expansion is restricted, mini-grids could potentially provide electricity access to between 60 million and 110 million people across the four countries.

IRENA estimated that about 397,270 settlements could be served by battery-supported mini-grids under the scenarios assessed.

The agency said standalone solar systems would play the largest role at lower electricity-demand levels, potentially serving between 70 million and 122 million people.

Mini-grids, however, would become more prominent from tier 3 demand levels, while standalone systems would increasingly serve the most remote and sparsely populated areas.

IRENA also estimated that achieving universal electricity supply at tier 2 demand levels by 2030 would require about 2.25 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery storage across the four countries.

Nigeria would account for about 1.59GWh of the requirement, compared with 367 megawatt-hours (MWh) for Burkina Faso, 220MWh for Mali and 75MWh for Senegal.

The report said the total requirement was equivalent to about 815,217 units of a typical 2.76 kilowatt-hour, 51.2-volt lithium iron phosphate battery system.

The Issues

IRENA’s assessment highlights battery-backed mini-grids as a potential route to expanding electricity access where extending the national grid is difficult or costly.

The agency’s recommendations for Nigeria focus not only on installing more systems but also on developing the ecosystem needed to operate and regulate them. This includes technical skills, certification, safety standards, open metering and local-content policies.

Battery storage can also reduce reliance on diesel generators. In an example involving a mini-grid serving about 500 people, IRENA found that a system incorporating batteries could provide a discounted lifetime value of about $20,000 compared with an equivalent system relying on diesel generators for flexibility.

Although the battery system required greater upfront investment, the report said fuel savings from reduced diesel consumption could offset the additional cost over its lifetime.

What’s Being Said

“Although the system with batteries requires a higher upfront investment, these costs are offset by the fuel savings resulting from reduced diesel consumption,” the report said.

“In this context, battery storage can play a strategic role in enhancing energy security, lowering system costs and accelerating the transition away from diesel dependence,” IRENA said.

IRENA said achieving universal electricity access would require “an unprecedented deployment effort that surpasses recent growth rates.”

What’s Next

IRENA recommended integrating off-grid solutions into national electrification strategies, improving geospatial electrification planning and mobilising finance, appropriate business models and de-risking mechanisms.

For Nigeria, the agency also recommended strengthening technical skills and certification, establishing safety standards, promoting open metering and developing local-content policies as the mini-grid market matures.

Bottom Line

IRENA estimates that Nigeria has almost 400MW of near-term solar mini-grid potential, the largest share of the 568MW identified across four West African countries. The agency says unlocking that potential will require stronger technical capacity, regulation, finance, metering systems and local-content policies, alongside greater use of battery storage.