By Boluwatife Oshadiya | April 14, 2026
Key Points
- FGN bond yields close flat at 15.89% amid cautious trading
- Investors adopt wait-and-see approach ahead of March inflation release
- Select buying at short end offsets sell pressure on longer maturities
Main Story
Yields on Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) bonds held steady at 15.89% in the secondary market on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of March inflation data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Trading activity was subdued, with market participants showing selective interest, particularly at the short end of the yield curve. Analysts attribute the muted sentiment to uncertainty around inflation trajectory and its implications for monetary policy direction.
Across benchmark maturities, yields declined modestly on select papers. The Mar-2027 and Mar-2028 bonds recorded yield compressions of 8 and 2 basis points respectively, while the Nov-2028 instrument edged down by 1 basis point. However, the Aug-2030 bond came under selling pressure, with yields rising by 10 basis points, reflecting reduced appetite for longer-duration risk.
Market participants remain focused on inflation dynamics after February headline inflation eased to 15.06%, supported by a temporary moderation in food prices. However, renewed upward pressure on petrol prices and persistent food supply constraints are expected to reverse the disinflation trend in the second quarter.
What’s Being Said
“The bond market is currently in a consolidation phase as investors await clearer inflation signals before taking duration positions,” said Johnson Chukwu, Managing Director, Cowry Asset Management.
“We expect yields to remain range-bound in the near term, with upside risks tied to energy prices and exchange rate pressures,” added analysts at Cordros Capital.
What’s Next
- NBS expected to release March inflation data within the week
- Market participants to reassess yield curve positioning post-data release
- Next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision likely to hinge on inflation direction
The Bottom Line: Nigeria’s fixed income market is in a holding pattern, with inflation data now the primary catalyst for direction. Any upside surprise could trigger a repricing of yields and reinforce expectations of tighter monetary conditions.
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