The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has cautioned that Nigeria must take proactive steps to shield its economy from the escalating trade war between the United States and China, as global trade disruptions threaten the country’s import-dependent industrial sector.
This warning comes from the newly released NESG Foreign Trade Alert: 2024Q4 & Full Year 2024, which underscores Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks. The United States imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports in February 2025 and has announced plans to raise it by another 10% in April. In retaliation, China introduced 10-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports, effective March 10, 2025, and imposed export restrictions on select U.S. entities.
These measures are expected to disrupt global supply chains, slow world trade growth, and drive up the prices of globally traded commodities, a situation that could have severe consequences for Nigeria. China remained Nigeria’s largest trading partner in Q4 2024, followed by India, Belgium, the U.S., and France. Key imports during the period included refined petroleum products, sugar cane, and spare parts.
Nigeria’s over-reliance on imported raw materials poses a major economic risk, with Q4 2024 raw material imports totaling N2.1 trillion, while exports lagged behind at just N0.7 trillion.To mitigate the impact of the US-China trade war, NESG advises Nigeria to diversify its trade partnerships and reduce reliance on countries affected by the tariffs.
“Nigeria needs to hedge against the U.S.-China trade war by diversifying trade patterns towards nations not impacted by U.S. tariffs. This would help cushion tariff-induced increases in import costs, especially for Nigeria’s import-dependent non-oil industrial sector,” the report stated.
NESG urges policymakers to explore alternative trade agreements, strengthen local manufacturing, and develop a strategic trade policy that safeguards Nigeria’s economic stability amid ongoing global uncertainties.
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