Global crude oil prices edged lower on Monday, following a temporary Easter ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Market sentiment was further weighed down by growing fears over a potential escalation in US-China trade disputes.
Brent crude fell by roughly 1.2%, trading at $66.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped by approximately 1.3%, closing at $62.88 per barrel.
The decline in prices was driven by a convergence of factors, including renewed diplomatic progress in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, a short-lived truce in the Ukraine conflict, and simmering trade tensions between the United States and China.
A US official disclosed on Saturday that both direct and indirect talks with Iran had yielded “very good progress.” The statement added, “We have agreed to reconvene next week and appreciate our Omani hosts and Italian partners for facilitating the current round of discussions.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed the positive outlook, describing the negotiations as “constructive and good.” Ahead of the next session, technical discussions at the expert level are scheduled to begin in Oman on Wednesday.
The ongoing indirect talks, launched in Muscat last Saturday, aim to revive a nuclear accord, with Oman serving as a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran. These negotiations gained urgency following US President Donald Trump’s threats of military action should a new agreement fail to replace the 2015 deal signed during the Obama administration.
A potential breakthrough in the US-Iran dialogue has raised expectations for Iranian crude to re-enter global markets, easing supply concerns and diminishing geopolitical risk premiums—factors that contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin confirmed that President Vladimir Putin had not extended Russia’s Easter ceasefire in Ukraine. The temporary truce, which lasted 30 hours, was declared by Moscow on Saturday as a test of Kyiv’s willingness to pursue peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded by mirroring Russia’s move and proposed prolonging the pause if a comprehensive ceasefire could be achieved. However, by Sunday, both Russia and Ukraine had accused each other of violating the brief truce.
In addition, market analysts pointed to continued uncertainties in US-China relations as a key factor dampening oil prices. While US officials reported progress in trade discussions with other global partners, analysts warned that an escalating trade war with China could hinder US efforts to manage inflation and support economic growth.
In a statement released Monday, China’s Ministry of Commerce expressed support for resolving economic disagreements with the US through mutual consultation, while also opposing any resolution perceived to be unfavorable to Chinese interests.
Experts cautioned that heightened geopolitical risks involving China and the US could disrupt global trade flows and potentially reignite inflationary pressures. Should inflation rise, the Federal Reserve may delay anticipated interest rate cuts—potentially weakening oil demand in the US, the world’s top oil consumer—and exert further downward pressure on global oil prices.
