Key points
- Cocoa futures have climbed to a 24-week high, with September contracts trading at $6,366 per metric tonne after rising nearly 40 per cent in four weeks.
- Heavy rainfall across Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire has disrupted cocoa production and heightened the risk of black pod disease and brown rot.
- Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to decline by about 11 per cent in the 2025/26 season, while concerns over a possible strong El Niño are adding to supply fears.
Main Story
Global cocoa prices have surged to their highest level in 24 weeks as persistent heavy rainfall across major West African producing countries raises concerns over crop losses, disease outbreaks and tightening global supplies.
September cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York traded at $6,366 per metric tonne on July 10, marking a strong recovery after prices plunged from record highs above $11,000 per metric tonne in mid-2024 to about $3,100–$3,300 per metric tonne between March and April 2026.
The latest rally has seen cocoa prices rise by nearly 40 per cent within four weeks, reflecting renewed investor concerns over production prospects for the 2026/27 crop season.
Market analysts said the widening price gap between near-term and longer-dated futures contracts indicates traders expect sustained market volatility rather than a quick return to lower price levels.
The earlier decline in cocoa prices was driven largely by weaker global demand, reduced processing activity, product downsizing by manufacturers and strong cocoa arrivals at West African ports following the previous harvest.
However, attention has now shifted to weather-related risks threatening production in the world’s largest cocoa-producing region.
Heavy rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana has inundated cocoa-growing areas, disrupting transportation, delaying harvesting activities and increasing the risk of black pod disease and brown rot, both of which can severely damage developing cocoa pods.
Field surveys in Côte d’Ivoire indicate below-average formation of young cocoa pods, with early projections suggesting the country’s 2026/27 harvest could decline to between 1.7 million and 1.8 million metric tonnes, compared with an estimated 2.2 million metric tonnes for the current season.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, is also experiencing prolonged and unusually heavy rainfall across key cocoa-producing states.
While adequate moisture is essential for cocoa cultivation, excessive rainfall creates favourable conditions for fungal diseases that threaten crop yields.
The Cocoa Association of Nigeria has already projected that the country’s cocoa production for the 2025/26 season will decline by approximately 11 per cent, from 344,000 metric tonnes to about 305,000 metric tonnes, although ongoing flooding could further reduce output.
Meteorological agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, have also warned of a high probability of a strong El Niño event.
Such conditions could bring intense heat and prolonged dry weather later in the crop cycle, further reducing cocoa productivity across West Africa.
Analysts noted that despite improved physical inventories at ICE-certified warehouses, structural challenges—including ageing cocoa trees, inadequate farm investment and the lengthy time required for replanting—continue to constrain global supply.
The Issues
Several factors are driving renewed volatility in the global cocoa market:
- Heavy rainfall disrupting cocoa production and transportation in West Africa.
- Increased outbreaks of black pod disease and brown rot affecting cocoa pods.
- Expected decline in cocoa production across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria.
- Potential impact of a strong El Niño event later in the growing season.
- Long-term structural challenges, including ageing plantations and inadequate investment in cocoa farming.
- Continued imbalance between global cocoa demand and available supply.
What’s Being Said
Market Analysts
September cocoa futures have risen to $6,366 per metric tonne, representing a gain of nearly 40 per cent over the past four weeks.
The futures market is pricing in continued supply tightness and elevated volatility for the 2026/27 crop.
Analysts expect cocoa prices to remain within the $5,000–$7,000 per metric tonne range during the third quarter of 2026 as weather conditions and crop assessments become clearer.
Industry Outlook
The Cocoa Association of Nigeria projects that the country’s cocoa harvest will decline by about 11 per cent, with ongoing heavy rainfall posing additional downside risks to production.
What’s Next
Market participants will closely monitor weather conditions across West Africa during July and August as crop development enters a critical stage.
Attention will also focus on the progression of black pod disease, rainfall patterns and the possible emergence of a strong El Niño event, all of which could significantly influence global cocoa production and prices.
Further crop surveys from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria are expected to provide clearer indications of the 2026/27 harvest outlook.
Bottom Line
Global cocoa prices have staged a sharp recovery as adverse weather conditions in West Africa threaten supplies from the world’s leading producing countries. With production forecasts weakening and climate risks mounting, cocoa markets are expected to remain volatile, while producers, exporters and manufacturers prepare for another potentially tight supply season.
