Key points
- Nigeria is projected to attract $10.74 billion in modular refinery investment between 2026 and 2030.
- Industrial Info Resources identified 24 refinery projects under development in Nigeria, the highest globally.
- Nigeria’s refining capacity could reach 2.64 million barrels per day by 2031 if all projects are completed.
Main story
Nigeria is projected to become the world’s leading destination for new refinery construction between 2026 and 2030, with an estimated $10.74 billion expected to be invested in modular refinery projects.
The projection, released by global industrial intelligence firm Industrial Info Resources (IIR) and reported by The Punch, identified 24 refinery projects currently under development in Nigeria, the highest number among countries tracked by the organisation.
According to the report, the United States and Iran each have 11 planned refinery projects, while Iraq has eight and China five.
IIR said successful completion of the Nigerian projects by 2031 would increase the country’s refining capacity to about 2.64 million barrels per day, significantly expanding its downstream petroleum industry.
The report noted that modular refineries are expected to account for most of the planned capacity additions because they can be deployed more quickly and expanded in phases.
Nigeria has historically exported crude oil while relying heavily on imported refined petroleum products, exposing the economy to foreign exchange pressures and global fuel price volatility.
The report said continued investment in refining infrastructure could further strengthen Nigeria’s shift toward domestic fuel production, building on the impact of the Dangote Refinery, which has already enabled the country to become a net exporter of petrol and an important supplier of aviation fuel to international markets.
However, the report did not identify the companies behind the proposed refinery projects or clarify whether the projected investment represents entirely new funding commitments or includes financing already secured for ongoing developments.
The issues
Nigeria has long sought to expand domestic refining capacity to reduce fuel imports, conserve foreign exchange and capture greater value from its crude oil production. The growing pipeline of modular refineries suggests renewed investor confidence in the downstream sector, but successful execution will depend on project financing, regulatory stability, crude oil availability and timely delivery.
What’s being said
“Modular refineries — smaller, faster-to-deploy units that can be built incrementally — would account for the majority of the anticipated capacity expansion.” — Hillary Stevenson, Vice President of Energy Intelligence, Industrial Info Resources (IIR).
“Continued investment in both new and existing refining infrastructure has the potential to transform Nigeria’s downstream oil sector and reduce the country’s long-standing dependence on imported petroleum products.” — Industrial Info Resources (IIR).
What’s next
Attention will shift to the financial close, construction timelines and regulatory approvals for the proposed refinery projects, while investors monitor whether Nigeria can deliver the projected capacity expansion by 2031.
Bottom line
If the projected investments materialise, Nigeria could emerge as one of the world’s largest refining hubs, strengthening energy security, expanding refined product exports and fundamentally reshaping its role in global petroleum markets.
