By Boluwatife Oshadiya | June 10, 2026
Key Points
- Nigeria’s poverty rate has climbed to 63% despite ongoing economic reforms, according to the IMF
- About 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025 as inflation and living costs remained elevated
- IMF projects economic growth of 4% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026 but warns that external price shocks could worsen poverty levels
Main Story
Nigeria’s poverty rate has risen to 63% of the population, highlighting the severe economic challenges facing households despite recent macroeconomic reforms, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The assessment was contained in the IMF’s latest Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, where the multilateral lender acknowledged progress made by authorities in strengthening macroeconomic stability over the past three years. However, the Fund noted that the benefits of these reforms have yet to translate into improved living conditions for millions of Nigerians.
According to the IMF, approximately 27 million Nigerians experienced food insecurity during the latter part of 2025, while rising fuel, food and fertilizer prices continue to place additional pressure on household incomes.
The Fund projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by 4% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, supported by ongoing reforms and stronger external balances. Nevertheless, inflation remains a major concern. Consumer prices rose to 15.4% year-on-year in March 2026 after international fuel and food price increases filtered into the domestic economy.
The IMF also reported improvements in Nigeria’s external position. Gross international reserves increased to $46 billion in 2025 from $40 billion at the end of 2024, while net international reserves rose to $35 billion from $23 billion over the same period.
However, the Fund noted that oil revenues fell below budget expectations in 2025, contributing to a fiscal deficit estimated at 4.4% of GDP. It warned that uncertainties surrounding global commodity prices and domestic security challenges remain significant risks to economic growth and social welfare.
What’s Being Said
“Strong reforms over the past three years have improved macroeconomic outcomes and strengthened resilience, but conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult,” the IMF stated in its Article IV Consultation report.
“Poverty reached 63 percent of the population, and 27 million Nigerians are estimated to have faced food insecurity in the fall of 2025,” the Fund added.
Independent economists have argued that while recent fiscal and monetary reforms have improved economic fundamentals, high inflation, unemployment and weak purchasing power continue to limit the benefits reaching ordinary citizens.
What’s Next
- The Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to maintain a tight monetary policy stance as it seeks to contain inflationary pressures.
- Federal authorities are likely to accelerate revenue mobilisation efforts and expand social intervention programmes targeted at vulnerable households.
- Investors and policymakers will closely monitor inflation data and economic growth indicators throughout the second half of 2026.
Bottom Line
The Bottom Line: Nigeria’s economic reforms are beginning to improve key macroeconomic indicators, but the IMF’s latest assessment shows that the gains have yet to significantly ease hardship for millions of citizens. Sustained growth, stronger social protection measures and lower inflation will be critical if economic stability is to translate into meaningful improvements in living standards.
