Offshore Dollar Inflows Propel Naira To N1540 Amid Renewed Market Confidence

Federation Account Amasses Over ₦5trn In 6months- RMAFC

The Nigerian naira surged by N13 against the US dollar at the official foreign exchange window on renewed investor optimism and a fresh injection of offshore dollar inflows into the financial system.

This uptick in the local currency’s value followed strong participation from foreign portfolio investors in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) open market operations (OMO) last week. The apex bank floated two separate OMO auctions, cumulatively worth N600 billion, to attract offshore capital via high-yielding debt instruments.

Latest spot data from the CBN FX trading platform revealed that the naira opened the new trading week at N1540.04 per dollar, improving from N1553.11 at last week’s close.

Investor sentiment has improved markedly, buoying the naira’s appreciation trajectory as foreign exchange demand from corporates moderates. The currency’s performance marks a continuation of last week’s momentum, where it posted its biggest weekly gain since December 2024—closing the week 2.13% stronger at N1,553.12 per dollar.

The parallel market mirrored this trend, with the naira also climbing 2.13% week-on-week to settle at N1,585.00 per dollar, according to Coronation Merchant Bank Limited’s research desk. Analysts attribute this broad-based optimism to sizable foreign portfolio inflows, which also influenced pricing across forward contracts.

The one-month forward rate settled at N1,606.00 per dollar. Meanwhile, the three-month contract closed at N1,675.50, the six-month at N1,776.30, and the one-year forward rate at N1,977.47 per dollar.

The Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) reported a weekly inflow of $780 million, a drop from the $1.04 billion recorded the week prior. Coronation’s investor note on Tuesday disclosed the contribution breakdown: exporters (18.83%), the CBN (19.78%), and foreign portfolio investors (32.47%).

Non-bank corporate entities contributed 27.60% of the total dollar inflow, while other sources made up the remaining 1.32%. Despite improved FX inflows, Nigeria’s external reserves hovered around $38.33 billion amid global commodity market uncertainties.

Crude oil prices saw an uptick last week due to supportive macroeconomic signals and cautious supply-side policies. Renewed US-China trade engagement and a weakening US dollar added momentum to global oil prices, alongside OPEC+ indications of controlled production increases, reinforcing expectations of tighter global supply.