By Boluwatife Oshadiya | June 17, 2026
Key Points
- Nigeria’s external reserves rise to $50.81 billion
- Crude oil production reaches 1.70 million barrels per day in May
- Analysts expect reserves to exceed $51 billion before the end of June
Main Story
Nigeria’s gross external reserves have climbed to $50.813 billion, placing the country on course to surpass the $51 billion mark for the first time since January 2009.
Latest CBN data showed reserves increased from $50.505 billion recorded a week earlier, supported by stronger oil export receipts, diaspora remittances and improved foreign exchange inflows into the economy.
The reserve position has strengthened considerably from $45.505 billion at the end of 2025, representing an increase of more than $5 billion during the first half of 2026.
A major driver of the improvement has been stronger oil production. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed total crude oil and condensate output rose by 2.2% month-on-month to 1.70 million barrels per day in May, compared with 1.66 million barrels per day in April. Crude oil production alone reached approximately 1.53 million barrels per day, exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC quota for the first time in 2026.
Analysts attributed the improvement to stable operations across major production facilities, reduced pipeline disruptions and the absence of major maintenance shutdowns. The May figure represents Nigeria’s highest oil output level in 11 months.
Despite the gains, industry analysts note that output remains below the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day.
What’s Being Said
“Sustained production levels around 1.70 million barrels per day should continue to support crude export volumes and provide a positive boost to Nigeria’s current account position and external reserves,” analysts at CSL Stockbrokers said in a market note.
“The average crude oil production recorded in May represents 102 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota,” the NUPRC said in its latest production report.
What’s Next
- The market expects Nigeria’s reserves to exceed $51 billion before the end of June if current inflow trends continue.
- The NUPRC is expected to commence the 2026 licensing round in the third quarter.
- Investors are monitoring progress on major deepwater projects expected to boost long-term production capacity.
Bottom Line
The Bottom Line: Rising oil production and stronger dollar inflows are rebuilding Nigeria’s external buffers at a pace not seen in years. However, sustaining reserve growth will depend on maintaining production gains and keeping output closer to government targets.
