KEY POINTS
- Average available power generation has dropped to approximately 4,300MW due to severe gas supply limitations.
- Thermal plants received only 692.00 MMSCF of gas on February 23, 2026, meeting less than 43% of the 1,629.75 MMSCF required for optimal operation.
- The Independent System Operator (ISO) has initiated load shedding to maintain grid stability, with energy allocated to DisCos based on NERC MYTO percentages.
MAIN STORY
The Nigerian Independent System Operator (ISO) has attributed the current decline in national power output to a significant shortfall in gas supply to thermal generating stations. In a press release issued by management, the ISO noted that the current average generation of 4,300MW is a direct result of inadequate fuel for thermal plants, which constitute the dominant share of Nigeria’s energy mix.
Operational data reveals a stark disparity between required and actual gas volumes. While thermal stations collectively require 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) of gas per day to reach optimal capacity, actual supply as of February 23, 2026, stood at only 692.00 MMSCF. This deficit means that less than 43% of the necessary gas volume is reaching the units, leading to constrained generation and reduced energy allocation to Distribution Companies (DisCos).
To prevent total system disturbances and maintain grid stability under these low-generation conditions, the ISO is implementing mandatory load shedding. Energy is currently being dispatched in strict accordance with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) allocation percentages. Management expressed regret for the inconvenience to consumers and stated that full allocation will resume once gas supply improves and generation capacity is restored.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
- “The current low generation level is fundamentally driven by inadequate gas supply to thermal generating units, leading to reduced energy allocation to the DisCos,” stated ISO Management.
- The ISO emphasized that the current gas supply: “Represents less than 43% of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output.”
- Regarding grid management: “The Independent System Operator must implement load shedding… to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances.”
WHAT’S NEXT
- The ISO is working with gas suppliers and generation companies to address the supply bottlenecks and restore thermal plant productivity.
- DisCos are expected to manage the reduced energy allocation via localized load shedding until grid output stabilizes.
- Market participants are monitoring gas delivery data to determine when generation can return to the required optimal levels above 4,300MW.
BOTTOM LINE
The Bottom Line is that Nigeria’s power grid remains highly vulnerable to gas supply volatility. With thermal plants operating at less than half their required fuel capacity, the ISO must prioritize grid integrity through load shedding until the 937.75 MMSCF daily gas deficit is closed.
 has attributed the current decline in national power output to a significant shortfall in gas supply to thermal generating stations. In a press release issued by management, the ISO noted that the current average generation of 4,300MW is a direct result of inadequate fuel for thermal plants, which constitute the dominant share of Nigeria's energy mix.){kind=link}