Key points
- Nigeria imported about 61.7 million barrels of U.S. crude between 2024 and January 2026 despite being Africa’s largest oil producer
- Over 69% of Nigeria’s crude output was exported in 2025, leaving domestic refiners under-supplied
- Structural supply gaps, commercial dynamics, and refinery specifications are driving a shift from fuel imports to crude imports
Introduction
Nigeria’s oil sector is undergoing a quiet but profound transformation—one that, at first glance, appears contradictory. Africa’s largest crude producer is increasingly importing crude oil, particularly from the United States, even as it exports hundreds of millions of barrels to the global market.
Between January 2024 and January 2026, Nigeria imported approximately 61.7 million barrels of crude oil from the United States, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This marks a dramatic reversal from nearly a decade of negligible crude trade between both countries.
Before 2024, U.S. crude exports to Nigeria were virtually non-existent, with only a marginal flow recorded in 2016. Today, however, Nigeria has emerged as a notable destination for American crude, a shift driven largely by structural realities within its domestic oil and refining ecosystem.
The turning point came in 2024 with the operational launch of the Dangote Refinery—a 650,000 barrels-per-day facility widely regarded as the largest single-train refinery in the world.
Unlike Nigeria’s legacy refineries, which remained largely dormant for decades, the Dangote refinery created immediate and significant demand for crude feedstock. But instead of relying solely on domestic supply, the refinery has increasingly turned to imports—particularly from the United States.
EIA data shows that Nigeria imported 15.7 million barrels of U.S. crude in the first half of 2024 alone. By 2025, imports surged further, reaching 41.06 million barrels between February and December. Peak inflows occurred in June 2025, when imports hit 305,000 barrels per day—equivalent to over 9 million barrels in a single month.
By January 2026, imports remained elevated at 159,000 barrels per day, reinforcing a sustained pattern rather than a temporary anomaly.
Export giant, domestic shortages
This surge in imports stands in stark contrast to Nigeria’s export profile.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that Nigeria exported an estimated 306.7 million barrels of crude oil between January and October 2025 alone. This represents roughly 69% of total production during that period.
With total output at 443.5 million barrels, only about 137 million barrels were retained for domestic use, a figure insufficient to meet the needs of emerging refining capacity.
The trend persisted into 2026. In the first two months of the year, Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels—31.31 million in January and 24.08 million in February—leaving just 26.55 million barrels available for local refining.
In effect, Nigeria is exporting crude in bulk while importing different grades to meet specific refining requirements—a structural imbalance that reflects deeper inefficiencies in the system.
Why local crude is not enough
The reasons behind this paradox are complex but grounded in market realities rather than policy contradictions.
First, much of Nigeria’s crude is tied to long-term export contracts, often denominated in dollars and structured years in advance. These agreements prioritise foreign buyers, limiting flexibility in redirecting supply to domestic refiners.
Second, crude quality and refinery configuration play a crucial role. The Dangote refinery, for instance, is designed to process a blend of crude grades, including lighter sweet crudes commonly sourced from the U.S. Gulf Coast. Domestic grades, while abundant, may not always match the refinery’s optimal input mix at scale.
Third, pricing dynamics have created friction. Domestic refiners have repeatedly raised concerns about the commercial terms under which they access Nigerian crude, even under initiatives such as the naira-for-crude arrangement.
According to industry stakeholders, including the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, several modular refineries have faced intermittent shutdowns due to inadequate access to feedstock.
Dangote refinery and the shift in import structure
For decades, Nigeria’s dependence on imports centred on refined petroleum products—petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel—due to the collapse of state-owned refineries.
The emergence of the Dangote refinery has altered that pattern. Instead of importing finished products, Nigeria is now importing crude for local processing—a shift that represents progress, but also exposes supply chain gaps.
Business magnate Aliko Dangote has acknowledged that U.S. crude imports are necessary to bridge the gap between domestic supply and refinery demand. The facility requires over 19 million barrels of crude monthly to operate optimally—far above what is consistently available locally.
In addition to U.S. imports, the refinery has sourced crude from other African producers, including Ghana, highlighting a broader regional trade dynamic.
The strategic implications
This evolving trade pattern carries significant implications for Nigeria’s energy security and economic strategy.
On one hand, local refining reduces dependence on imported fuels, conserves foreign exchange, and strengthens industrial capacity. On the other, continued reliance on imported crude raises questions about supply chain efficiency and national resource optimisation.
The situation also underscores the need for alignment between upstream production and downstream demand. Without deliberate policy coordination, Nigeria risks substituting one form of import dependency for another.
To address the imbalance, industry experts point to several critical priorities:
- Revisiting crude allocation frameworks to ensure domestic refiners have reliable access
- Enhancing production levels to meet both export obligations and local demand
- Improving pricing transparency to make domestic supply commercially viable
- Strengthening regulatory coordination across upstream and downstream segments
As refining capacity expands, not just with Dangote but also modular refineries—the pressure on domestic crude supply will intensify.
Bottom line
Nigeria’s importation of U.S. crude amid massive exports is not a contradiction—it is a reflection of structural gaps in supply, pricing, and infrastructure. While the shift from fuel imports to crude imports signals progress, the country’s long-term energy security will depend on its ability to align production with domestic refining needs.
