By Boluwatife Oshadiya | August 17, 2026
Key Points
- Coronation Research forecasts Nigeria’s headline inflation at 15.80% year-on-year in July, extending the disinflation trend
- Month-on-month inflation is projected to rise to 1.90% from 1.66% in June as fuel-price pressures feed into transport and logistics costs
- Seasonal food harvests and relative naira stability could moderate price pressures, although energy and foreign-exchange risks remain
Main Story
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is projected to ease to 15.80% year-on-year in July from 15.91% in June, according to Coronation Research, as seasonal food relief and relative naira stability offset renewed energy-price pressures.
The forecast also puts month-on-month inflation at 1.90%, up from 1.66% in June. Coronation Research attributed the expected increase to a fuel-price shock in the second half of July, which could raise transportation, haulage and logistics costs despite declining prices for some staple foods.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported June headline inflation at 15.91%, down marginally from 15.93% in May. The bureau recorded core inflation at 15.92% and food inflation at 17.52% in June.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages account for 40.2% of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index basket under the 2025-rebased CPI. Coronation expects the main harvest season in northern and Middle Belt states to provide some relief for staples including yam, cassava and tomatoes, although higher logistics costs could limit the impact.
Energy prices present a countervailing risk. Dangote Petroleum Refinery switched petrol transactions to dollar-denominated pricing on July 13, with petrol fixed at $0.779 per litre, before returning to naira pricing on July 22 at a higher ex-depot price.
The naira also remained relatively stable during July, trading around the ₦1,362–₦1,383 per dollar range at the official window, according to the market assessment cited by Coronation Research.
What’s Being Said
“The June 2026 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.02% compared to the May 2026 headline inflation rate,” the National Bureau of Statistics said in its June Consumer Price Index report.
Coronation Research expects July’s disinflation to continue, but warns that the increase in month-on-month inflation reflects renewed pressure from fuel prices and its potential transmission into transportation, logistics and services.
What’s Next
The key near-term development is the release of the NBS July Consumer Price Index, which will determine whether the 15.80% forecast materialises.
Markets and policymakers will also monitor the extent to which July’s fuel-price shock feeds into transport, logistics and service costs. The performance of food prices during the harvest season and movements in the naira will remain important indicators for the direction of inflation in the coming months.
The Bottom Line:
The projected July decline would reinforce Nigeria’s emerging disinflation trend, but the increase in monthly inflation shows that the improvement remains vulnerable to energy and transport-cost shocks. The headline rate may be easing, but underlying price pressures have not disappeared.
