Key points
- Nigeria’s headline inflation eased marginally to 15.91% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May.
- Despite the moderation, 19 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) recorded annual inflation rates above 30%.
- Niger (42.23%), Kogi (41.59%), and the FCT (39.91%) posted the highest headline inflation rates.
- Food inflation remained elevated, with Kogi recording 53.02%, the highest in the country.
Main Story
Despite a slight easing in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in June 2026, residents across more than half of the country’s states continued to grapple with inflation exceeding 30%, highlighting persistent cost-of-living pressures despite improving national figures.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that headline inflation slowed marginally to 15.91% in June from 15.93% recorded in May.
However, a breakdown of the figures revealed that 19 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT)—representing 54.1% of Nigeria’s 37 sub-national entities—recorded annual all-items inflation rates above 30%.
According to the NBS, Niger State posted the country’s highest annual headline inflation rate at 42.23%, followed by Kogi (41.59%) and the FCT (39.91%).
Other states recording inflation above the 30% threshold included Kwara (36.52%), Plateau (35.82%), Sokoto (35.22%), Benue (35.06%), Osun (34.46%), Yobe (34.40%), Kebbi (34.07%), Enugu (34.00%), Bauchi (33.68%), Gombe (33.51%), Oyo (32.81%), Lagos (32.28%), Akwa Ibom (31.85%), Adamawa (31.82%), Ekiti (31.00%), Taraba (30.54%), and Abia (30.28%).
At the lower end of the ranking, Imo recorded the country’s lowest annual inflation rate at 19.47%, followed by Ebonyi (20.79%) and Katsina (21.87%).
The NBS, however, cautioned against using state-level inflation figures for direct price comparisons, noting that differences in consumer spending patterns and expenditure weights influence inflation outcomes across states.
Food inflation remained significantly higher across many parts of the country. Kogi recorded the highest annual food inflation rate at 53.02%, followed by Niger (43.83%) and Benue (40.83%). The FCT also posted a food inflation rate of 40.20%, while several other states recorded food inflation above 30%.
Nationally, food inflation stood at 17.52% year-on-year in June, compared with 25.41% in the corresponding period of 2025. On a month-on-month basis, however, food inflation accelerated to 3.75% from 2.98% in May, driven by higher prices of staple food items including tomatoes, fresh pepper, beef, garri, cowpea, yam tubers, cassava flour and Irish potatoes.
Monthly inflation trends also varied widely across states. Niger recorded the highest month-on-month headline inflation at 11.65%, while Bayelsa posted the largest monthly decline at -6.48%.
The Issues
Although the national inflation rate continued its gradual decline, state-level data indicate that inflationary pressures remain severe across much of the country, particularly for food.
The widening gap between the national average and state inflation figures suggests that the benefits of moderating inflation are unevenly distributed, with households in many states still facing sharply rising living costs.
Analysts also point to structural challenges—including insecurity, high transportation costs, elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, rising fertiliser costs and imported inflation—as the major factors sustaining inflation despite tighter monetary policy.
What’s Being Said
Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, said:
“The dominant concern in the report is the renewed acceleration in food inflation. Year-on-year food inflation increased from 17.43 per cent to 17.52 per cent, while month-on-month food inflation rose sharply from 2.98 per cent to 3.75 per cent, the strongest monthly increase in several months. This suggests that food prices have resumed an upward trajectory after a brief period of moderation.”
He added that food inflation remains the biggest contributor to Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, eroding household purchasing power, worsening poverty and food insecurity, and limiting the gains from ongoing economic reforms.
According to Yusuf, Nigeria’s inflation challenge remains largely structural rather than monetary, arguing that the latest inflation figures do not justify further monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Instead, he called for coordinated reforms to improve food production, strengthen logistics, reduce energy costs, deepen domestic petroleum refining and boost productivity.
What’s Next
Attention will shift to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where policymakers are expected to assess whether the marginal decline in headline inflation warrants maintaining current interest rates.
Meanwhile, analysts will continue to monitor food prices and the effectiveness of government interventions aimed at improving agricultural production, reducing logistics costs and addressing structural bottlenecks driving inflation across states.
Bottom Line
While Nigeria’s headline inflation rate showed a marginal improvement in June, inflation remains painfully high for households across much of the country. With more than half of the states and the FCT recording annual inflation above 30%, rising food prices and structural economic challenges continue to undermine living standards and threaten the pace of economic recovery.
