By Boluwatife Oshadiya, | April 19, 2026
Key Points
- Brent crude rises to $96.21 on Strait of Hormuz blockade fears
- WTI falls 5.5% week-on-week amid easing geopolitical tensions
- Diplomatic signals from US–Iran talks cap gains despite supply risks
Main Story
Global oil markets closed the week on a mixed note as supply-side fears linked to a potential US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent crude, while easing geopolitical tensions dragged US benchmark prices lower.
Brent crude settled at $96.21 per barrel, up 1.06% from $95.20 a week earlier. In contrast, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined sharply by 5.5% to $91.26, down from $96.57 the previous week, reflecting divergent market sentiment across benchmarks.
Prices surged early in the week after US President Donald Trump signalled a possible naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints—following failed negotiations with Iran in Islamabad. The Strait accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil shipments, making any disruption highly market-sensitive.
On April 12, Trump warned that the US could block “any and all ships” entering or leaving the Strait, prompting an immediate rally of over 8% in crude prices. The US Central Command later confirmed plans to begin enforcing maritime restrictions targeting Iranian-linked traffic.
However, the rally proved short-lived. By Tuesday, prices retreated as renewed optimism around US–Iran diplomacy emerged. US Vice President JD Vance indicated that talks in Pakistan had made “a lot of progress,” although he cautioned that failure to fully reopen the Strait could alter the trajectory of negotiations.
Markets extended losses midweek after Trump suggested the conflict could be nearing resolution, with fresh talks potentially resuming within days. By Thursday, prices ticked higher again following US threats of secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian crude and a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude inventories, signalling robust demand.
Oil edged lower on Friday as optimism over a possible diplomatic breakthrough outweighed lingering tensions in Lebanon and broader Middle East risks.
What’s Being Said
“Any sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and severe implications for global oil supply chains,” said Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency.
“We are seeing a market that is extremely sensitive to headlines rather than fundamentals right now,” said Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets.
What’s Next
- Further US–Iran diplomatic engagements are expected in the coming days, which could determine short-term price direction
- Markets will monitor US inventory data releases and OPEC+ signals for supply adjustments
- Any confirmed enforcement of maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger renewed price volatility
The Bottom Line: Oil markets are currently trading on geopolitical signals rather than core supply-demand fundamentals. Until clarity emerges on US–Iran relations and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, volatility will remain elevated, with downside risks tied to diplomacy and upside risks anchored in supply disruption fears.
