KEY POINTS
- Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says Nigeria is targeting an investment-grade credit rating within three years.
- The government also wants Nigeria’s naira-denominated bonds readmitted to JPMorgan’s flagship emerging-market government bond index.
- The SEC’s capital-market plan targets a market value of ₦750 trillion by 2036, while Oyedele is pushing for a $1 trillion market.
- The strategy aims to increase annual diaspora investment in the capital market to $10 billion and collective investment fund assets to $56 billion.
MAIN STORY
Nigeria is targeting an investment-grade credit rating within three years and a return to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s flagship emerging-market government bond index as the government seeks to attract more foreign investment and expand domestic capital markets.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele disclosed the targets in Abuja on Monday at an event where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) unveiled a 10-year capital-market development plan running through 2036.
“Our ambition has to be bold,” Oyedele said. “What we’re looking for is investment grade within the next three years.”
The government is also working with MSCI Inc. to secure the inclusion of Nigerian equities in its market indexes, according to Oyedele. The initiatives are intended to improve Nigeria’s access to international investment flows and broaden the pool of investors participating in its financial markets.
Nigeria remains below investment grade across the three major international credit rating agencies cited in the report. Moody’s Ratings places the country’s debt six levels below investment grade, while S&P Global Ratings ranks it five levels below and Fitch Ratings two levels below.
An investment-grade rating could broaden the range of institutional investors able to hold Nigerian government and corporate debt, depending on their investment mandates. Achieving that status, however, would require Nigeria to meet the relevant agencies’ assessments of its creditworthiness.
Nigeria’s history with JPMorgan’s emerging-market bond indexes also highlights the challenge. The country’s naira-denominated government bonds entered JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) indexes in 2012 but were removed in 2015 following foreign-exchange restrictions and concerns about market liquidity.
FTSE Russell restored Nigeria to frontier-market status in September 2026, making Nigerian stocks eligible for inclusion in the FTSE Frontier Index. The government is now pursuing broader recognition among international index providers, including JPMorgan and MSCI.
The announcement followed the SEC’s unveiling of a strategy to expand the Nigerian capital market substantially over the next decade. SEC Director-General Emomotimi Agama said the plan targets a market value of ₦750 trillion, equivalent to about $563 billion, by 2036, from approximately ₦250 trillion currently.
Oyedele said the government’s ambition went beyond the SEC’s stated target.
“What we are aiming at has to be at least $1 trillion for the capital markets in 10 years,” he said.
The SEC’s strategy was developed with FSD Africa, a Nairobi-based development agency, and funded by the UK government. It aims to more than double annual diaspora investment in the capital market to $10 billion and increase assets managed by collective investment funds tenfold to $56 billion.
The plan was launched alongside a national savings scheme supported by tax incentives. Agama said the Nigeria Revenue Service and FSD Africa signed a memorandum of understanding on the initiative on Monday.
He said broader participation by households and businesses would be essential to the market’s development.
“Too few Nigerians own a share, a bond or a unit in a collective investment scheme,” Agama said. “Too much of our savings sits idle, outside the formal system, quietly eroded by inflation. And too many of our enterprises, our infrastructure projects and our states still look abroad, or to the banks alone, for capital that ought to be raised from Nigerians, for Nigeria.”
The government’s ambitions coincide with a strong performance by Nigerian equities. According to Bloomberg data cited in the report, the Nigerian stock market was the world’s best-performing market this year, gaining 71 per cent in dollar terms.
The exchange is also preparing for the proposed listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE. The company, owned by Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, plans to raise as much as $2.1 billion at a valuation approaching $50 billion, according to the report. If completed on those terms, the offering would be Africa’s largest initial public offering to date.
The proposed listing could provide a major test of the market’s capacity to accommodate a large equity offering after a decade marked by limited IPO activity, economic recessions, currency devaluations and foreign-exchange restrictions.
THE ISSUES
Nigeria’s targeted return to JPMorgan’s bond index and its pursuit of an investment-grade rating are related but separate objectives. Index inclusion depends on the relevant benchmark’s eligibility requirements, while credit ratings reflect agencies’ assessments of a borrower’s ability to meet its financial obligations.
For international investors, improvements in market accessibility, foreign-exchange liquidity and the ability to repatriate funds are important considerations alongside macroeconomic indicators. Nigeria’s previous removal from JPMorgan’s index shows how market restrictions and liquidity concerns can affect its standing with global investors.
The SEC’s expansion plan also places greater emphasis on mobilising domestic savings. Increasing participation by Nigerian households, diaspora investors and collective investment funds could provide additional financing for companies and infrastructure, reducing exclusive reliance on bank lending and foreign capital.
However, the targets remain ambitions rather than achieved outcomes. Progress will depend on investor confidence, market access, the availability of investable assets and the successful implementation of the regulatory and policy measures supporting the plan.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“Our ambition has to be bold. What we’re looking for is investment grade within the next three years.” – Taiwo Oyedele, Finance Minister
“What we are aiming at has to be at least $1 trillion for the capital markets in 10 years.” – Taiwo Oyedele, Finance Minister
“Too few Nigerians own a share, a bond or a unit in a collective investment scheme. Too much of our savings sits idle, outside the formal system, quietly eroded by inflation. And too many of our enterprises, our infrastructure projects and our states still look abroad, or to the banks alone, for capital that ought to be raised from Nigerians, for Nigeria.” – Emomotimi Agama, SEC Director-General
WHAT’S NEXT
Investors will be watching for progress on Nigeria’s credit ratings, engagement with JPMorgan and MSCI, and measures to improve access to the domestic market. The implementation of the SEC’s plan through 2036 will also be important, particularly efforts to expand diaspora participation, collective investment funds and domestic savings.
The proposed Dangote refinery listing could provide a significant test of investor appetite and the exchange’s ability to accommodate large-scale capital raising.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria is pursuing an investment-grade credit rating within three years, renewed inclusion in JPMorgan’s emerging-market government bond index and a capital market worth at least $1 trillion within a decade. Achieving those targets will depend on sustained improvements in creditworthiness, market accessibility and investor participation, alongside delivery of the SEC’s long-term development plan.
Source: Bloomberg
