IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%

By Boluwatife Oshadiya | October 13, 2026

Key Points

• The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, up from its July projection of 3.0%, supported by investment in artificial intelligence
• The fund projects global growth of 3.4% in 2027 but warns that energy disruptions, inflation and rising public debt threaten the outlook
• Oil-importing economies and countries with limited exposure to the artificial intelligence supply chain face higher costs and weaker growth prospects

Main Story

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, citing sustained investment in artificial intelligence (AI), even as geopolitical tensions and energy supply disruptions threaten economic stability.

In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, titled Resilience under Strain, Urgent Choices, the fund projects global growth to slow from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 before improving to 3.4% in 2027. The 2026 estimate is 0.1 percentage point above the IMF’s July projection of 3.0%.

The outlook, however, reveals an increasingly uneven distribution of economic growth. According to the IMF, just 32 economies are expected to account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 economies in April. Approximately 47% of economies have had their growth forecasts downgraded.

The fund attributed the divergence partly to countries’ exposure to energy supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and their participation in AI-related production and supply chains. Economies supplying AI hardware and those less exposed to energy shocks are performing relatively better, while many low-income, energy-importing countries face higher import bills, currency pressures and declining real incomes.

The IMF’s baseline projection assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027, with conditions broadly returning to pre-war levels by October 2027. Before the conflict, the waterway carried approximately a quarter of global seaborne oil trade.

The fund estimates that alternative supplies, increased production elsewhere and withdrawals from inventories have limited the conflict’s impact on global growth. Without these responses, the closure of the strait could have reduced 2026 growth by 0.9 percentage points; the estimated impact has instead been contained to approximately 0.3 percentage points.

Inflation remains another concern. Global headline inflation is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027. Oil prices are forecast to average $95.74 per barrel in 2026, approximately 41% above the 2025 average, before declining to $87.39 in 2027.

What’s Being Said

The IMF’s assessment indicates that AI-related investment is supporting global activity, but the benefits are concentrated among economies with stronger links to the technology supply chain.

Independent reporting by Reuters highlights additional risks from a possible correction in AI investment, the Middle East conflict and rising debt. These risks could weaken growth further if technology spending disappoints or energy prices remain elevated. Read the Reuters report.

What’s Next

• Energy supply: The IMF’s baseline outlook depends on the Strait of Hormuz reopening in March 2027 and conditions normalising by October 2027.
• Inflation outlook: Global headline inflation is projected to ease to 4.1% in 2027, although persistent energy disruptions could undermine that forecast.
• Economic policy: Governments and central banks will need to monitor energy costs, public debt and the sustainability of AI-related investment as they respond to the uneven outlook.

Bottom Line

The Bottom Line: The IMF’s higher growth forecast signals resilience, not a broadly shared recovery. For developing economies, including Nigeria, the combination of energy-market volatility, inflation and uneven access to technology-driven investment makes domestic economic stability and diversification particularly important.