By Boluwatife Oshadiya | October 13, 2026
Key Points
- Brent crude futures fell 1.2% to $105.38 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate declined 1.4% to $92.44
- The US Treasury authorised specified transactions involving Russian diesel through April 7, 2027, following a supply agreement announced by President Donald Trump
- Uncertainty over a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and questions about the scale of additional fuel supplies continue to cloud the market outlook
Main Story
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as a US-Russia diesel supply agreement raised expectations of improved fuel availability, although uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to influence market sentiment.
Brent crude futures for December delivery declined 1.2% to $105.38 per barrel from $106.65 at the previous close, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November delivery dropped 1.4% to $92.44 from $93.74, according to the figures provided in the market report.
The price movements followed an agreement announced by US President Donald Trump on Friday, October 9, after discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump said Russia would supply diesel to US and global markets in an effort to ease fuel supply pressures.
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control subsequently issued a licence authorising specified transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian diesel through April 7, 2027. The measure provides a temporary easing of restrictions on qualifying transactions rather than a general removal of sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Russia also announced a partial relaxation of its diesel export ban. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told state broadcaster Vesti on Monday that the country could increase diesel exports to 3.5 million metric tonnes monthly by the end of the year.
The additional supply could help ease market tightness, but the extent of any price relief will depend on actual shipments, delivery schedules and the wider balance between global supply and demand.
Meanwhile, Trump renewed calls for Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reach an agreement to end the war. He maintained that both leaders supported an energy ceasefire, although their public positions have been disputed.
The competing signals leave energy markets weighing the prospect of additional fuel supplies against the risk that continuing geopolitical tensions could disrupt production, transport and trade.
What’s Being Said
Trump said he wanted the Russian and Ukrainian presidents to reach an agreement, telling reporters: “All I know is that Zelensky and Putin have to get together and end that ridiculous war.” — Donald Trump, US President.
Market analysts have also questioned whether the announced diesel volumes would be sufficient to produce substantial price relief. Michael Lynch of the Energy Policy Research Foundation told the Associated Press that redirecting Russian supplies could leave existing customers seeking fuel elsewhere, limiting the overall impact on prices. Source.
What’s Next
- Russian exports: Markets will monitor whether Russia delivers the announced diesel volumes and increases exports as projected by Novak.
- Sanctions and shipments: The US Treasury licence remains in effect through April 7, 2027, for the transactions it covers.
- Ukraine conflict: Further developments concerning the proposed energy ceasefire could affect expectations for energy supply and geopolitical risk.
Bottom Line
The Bottom Line: The diesel agreement has introduced the possibility of additional supply, but an announcement alone cannot guarantee sustained reductions in oil prices. The market’s direction will depend on actual deliveries and whether geopolitical disruptions continue to outweigh the benefits of increased availability.
