By Emmanuella Opara | November 5th 2026
KEY POINTS
- African airlines recorded an 8 per cent year-on-year increase in passenger demand in September 2026, according to IATA.
- The region posted the second-highest growth globally, behind Latin America, which recorded 8.2 per cent.
- African carriers expanded available seat capacity by 8.8 per cent, while passenger load factor declined by 0.6 percentage points to 74.8 per cent.
- Global passenger demand fell by 0.5 per cent, largely reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America.
MAIN STORY
African airlines recorded one of the strongest performances in the global aviation market in September 2026, with passenger demand rising by 8 per cent year-on-year despite a broader contraction in worldwide air travel.
The latest market report by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) showed that African carriers achieved the second-highest regional growth in passenger demand, behind Latin America, which recorded an 8.2 per cent increase.
To accommodate the rising demand, airlines across Africa increased their available seat capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, by 8.8 per cent compared with September 2025.
However, capacity expansion exceeded traffic growth, resulting in a 0.6 percentage point decline in the passenger load factor to 74.8 per cent.
The load factor measures the proportion of available passenger seats occupied during flights and provides an indication of how effectively airlines utilise their capacity.
Africa’s performance contrasted with the global aviation market, where total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, declined by 0.5 per cent year-on-year.
The contraction was largely influenced by weaker performances in the Middle East and North America. Excluding the Middle East, however, global passenger demand recorded a modest 0.3 per cent increase.
Worldwide capacity also declined by 0.2 per cent, while the global passenger load factor dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 83.2 per cent.
International passenger demand performed slightly better, increasing by 0.4 per cent compared with September 2025. Without the Middle East, the growth rate stood at 1.7 per cent.
International capacity expanded by 0.5 per cent, while the global international passenger load factor settled at 83.6 per cent, representing a 0.1 percentage point decline.
Domestic aviation recorded a weaker performance, with passenger demand falling by 2.2 per cent against a 1.3 per cent reduction in capacity. The domestic load factor consequently declined by 0.7 percentage points to 82.5 per cent.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice-president of sustainability and chief economist, said the overall decline in global traffic reflected weaknesses in key aviation markets but noted that international travel had returned to growth in several regions.
She said global scheduled seat capacity was expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, although growth rates remained weak and uneven across regions.
Latin America led international passenger demand growth with an 8.2 per cent increase, supported by a 7.6 per cent expansion in capacity. Its passenger load factor rose by 0.5 percentage points to 83.9 per cent.
European airlines recorded a 1.8 per cent increase in demand, while capacity grew by 1.2 per cent. The region maintained the highest international passenger load factor globally at 86.1 per cent, up 0.5 percentage points.
Asia-Pacific carriers posted a 0.7 per cent increase in demand alongside a 0.4 per cent rise in capacity, bringing their load factor to 83.1 per cent.
North American airlines recorded no year-on-year growth in passenger demand, while capacity declined by 1.9 per cent. The reduction in available seats helped push the regional load factor up by 1.6 percentage points to 84.9 per cent.
The Middle East recorded the weakest performance, with passenger demand falling by 7.5 per cent. Capacity declined by 3.3 per cent, while the passenger load factor dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 78.3 per cent.
Traffic along the Middle East-Asia corridor contracted by 8.8 per cent, worsening from the 7.9 per cent decline recorded in August.
IATA attributed the uneven recovery in global aviation to geopolitical uncertainty, volatile fuel prices and differing market conditions across regions.
The association said the trends observed in September reflected a pattern that had persisted through much of the year, with international travel recovering in several markets while others continued to experience pressure.
THE ISSUES
The growth recorded by African airlines points to increasing demand for international air travel across the continent, but the expansion in passenger numbers also highlights the importance of managing capacity efficiently.
African carriers increased available seat capacity faster than passenger demand, contributing to the decline in their load factor. If this pattern persists, airlines could face pressure to ensure that additional flights and seats translate into improved passenger revenues.
The continent’s aviation industry also operates within a challenging global environment characterised by fuel-price volatility, geopolitical disruptions and uneven recovery across international routes.
Although Africa’s September performance was considerably stronger than the global average, sustaining the growth will require airlines to balance expansion with operational efficiency and the commercial realities of their markets.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“Air traffic demand fell 0.5 percent in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets,” Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice-president of sustainability and chief economist, said.
“These patterns have more or less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions,” Owens Thomsen said.
WHAT’S NEXT
Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, although IATA anticipates continued differences in growth across regional markets.
For African airlines, the immediate challenge will be sustaining passenger demand while ensuring that capacity expansion supports stronger seat occupancy and commercial performance.
BOTTOM LINE
African airlines are outperforming much of the global aviation market in passenger demand growth, but the increase in capacity relative to traffic shows that expansion alone does not guarantee stronger operating performance. Sustaining the gains will depend on how effectively carriers convert rising demand into profitable operations.
