By Boluwatife Oshadiya | February 28, 2026
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, according to data released on Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics, reflecting stronger performance across agriculture, industry and oil production.
The year-on-year expansion represents an increase from the 3.76 percent recorded in Q4 2024 and a marginal rise from the 3.98 percent posted in the third quarter of 2025.
Full-year 2025 growth stood at 3.87 percent, compared with 3.38 percent in 2024, signalling sustained recovery momentum amid ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms.
Sector Performance
The agriculture sector expanded by 4.00 percent in Q4 2025, up from 2.54 percent in the corresponding period of 2024. The NBS attributed the improvement to enhanced security in key farming regions and improved access to agricultural inputs.
Industry recorded 3.88 percent growth, compared with 2.49 percent a year earlier. The sector benefited from improved foreign exchange access and energy-sector reforms aimed at stabilising production and reducing supply bottlenecks.
The services sector, which accounted for 55.92 percent of total GDP, grew by 4.15 percent in the fourth quarter. Although this was slightly lower than the 4.75 percent recorded in Q4 2024, activity remained strong in financial services and telecommunications.
In the oil sector, real GDP growth rose sharply to 6.79 percent year-on-year, up from 2.08 percent in Q4 2024. Average daily crude oil production stood at 1.58 million barrels per day during the quarter.
The non-oil sector, which contributed 97.13 percent to total GDP, grew by 3.99 percent, reinforcing the role of diversification in supporting overall output.
Nominal GDP Figures
Nominal GDP for Q4 2025 was estimated at ₦121.3 trillion, compared with ₦102.5 trillion in the same period of 2024.For the full year, Nigeria’s nominal GDP rose to ₦441.5 trillion from ₦372.8 trillion in 2024, reflecting both real output growth and price effects across sectors.
Reform Context
The latest figures come amid economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu, including foreign exchange unification and the removal of petrol subsidies. While the measures have helped improve revenue flows and investor sentiment, inflationary pressures and rising living costs continue to weigh on households.
Reactions
Commenting on the data, Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy at the Federal Ministry of Finance, said the Q4 performance marked a notable milestone.
“This marks the second time in a decade—excluding the immediate post-pandemic rebound—that quarterly growth has exceeded 4 percent,” Edun said.
However, independent analysts cautioned that macroeconomic expansion has yet to translate into broad-based prosperity.
Factalk Nigeria noted that while the 4.07 percent GDP growth is positive, it has not significantly improved living standards for many citizens. The group cited projections from PwC and the World Bank indicating poverty could reach about 62 percent, or roughly 141 million people, in 2026. It added that hardships persist in healthcare, education, electricity supply and security, despite inflation easing to approximately 15.1 percent in January 2026.
Outlook
The NBS is expected to release first-quarter 2026 GDP figures by May 2026, providing further insight into whether the above-4 percent growth trajectory can be sustained.
Attention will also turn to the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for March 24–25, 2026, where interest rates may be reviewed in light of the latest growth and inflation dynamics.
Bottom Line
Nigeria’s fourth-quarter 2025 GDP data underscores reform-driven expansion across key sectors, particularly agriculture, industry and oil. However, sustaining growth above 4 percent and translating macroeconomic gains into improved living standards will depend on addressing persistent inflationary pressures and structural inequality.
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