KEY POINTS
- Nigeria ranked 15th among 56 Commonwealth countries in the inaugural Ayre Index, scoring 54.5 out of 100.
- Only 15 Commonwealth countries met the study’s readiness benchmark of 53.
- About 90 per cent of young Nigerian respondents expect to use AI for education or work within a year.
- The study estimates that AI could increase Nigeria’s GDP by $5.234 billion after 10 years under its moderate scenario.
MAIN STORY
Nigeria has ranked 15th among 56 Commonwealth countries in a new study assessing young people’s readiness to benefit from artificial intelligence (AI), scoring 54.5 out of 100 in the inaugural Ayre Index.
The index, published by the Ayre Think Tank on November 5, 2026, was unveiled at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. It assessed conditions affecting young people’s ability to access, use and benefit from AI across all 56 Commonwealth member states.
Nigeria was the final country to meet the study’s readiness benchmark of 53, with only 15 countries reaching or exceeding the threshold. Mauritius and South Africa were the only other African Commonwealth countries to meet it.
The study drew on 1,128 research sources and examined opportunities facing approximately 732 million young people aged 15 to 29 across the Commonwealth.
For Nigeria, the findings point to strong interest in the technology among its estimated 65.7 million young people within that age group. About 90 per cent of young Nigerian respondents expected to use AI for education or work within the following year, the highest reported proportion among the countries assessed.
The study also found that 67.8 per cent of Nigerian respondents felt confident controlling their interactions with AI. Nigeria scored 8.7 out of 10 for motivation and confidence, reflecting young people’s reported willingness to participate in the AI economy.
However, the report identified a gap between this enthusiasm and the practical digital capabilities needed to benefit from the technology.
Nigeria scored just 0.8 out of 10 for digital, data, media and AI capability under the index’s selected measures. The study noted that this score relied mainly on household survey questions about conventional computer skills, such as installing software and writing computer programmes, rather than directly measuring young people’s current ability to use AI.
The report also highlighted widespread informal employment and the relatively small number of Nigerians aged 25 to 29 working in high-skill occupations.
Another area where Nigeria recorded a strong result was work-based learning. About 84 out of every 1,000 young Nigerians were engaged in apprenticeships, internships or traineeships, the highest rate among the 31 Commonwealth countries with comparable data.
In a separate survey of university students aged 18 to 29 who already used ChatGPT, 47.8 per cent of Nigerian respondents said they often or always used the tool to find information for research papers. This was the highest share among the countries included in that comparison.
The potential economic benefits are also significant. Applying scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund to national economic data, researchers estimated that AI could increase the level of Nigeria’s GDP by $5.234 billion after 10 years under a moderate scenario.
The conservative estimate was $2.617 billion, while the optimistic scenario put the potential increase at $7.851 billion.
The report stressed that these figures represent possible changes in the level of GDP after 10 years, not annual increases or guaranteed economic gains.
Nigeria has already introduced programmes intended to develop digital skills and encourage local technology businesses. The government’s 3 Million Technical Talent (3MTT) programme includes training in areas such as AI and machine learning.
In August 2026, the government and Meta also launched AI Academy Nigeria to provide practical training, technical support and opportunities for startups.
The government subsequently launched a National AI Innovation Challenge in September, encouraging developers, universities and startups to build practical applications using N-ATLAS, a local AI model supporting Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo and Nigerian English.
THE ISSUES
The Ayre Index highlights a gap between young Nigerians’ willingness to adopt AI and their measured digital capabilities.
Although the country recorded the highest reported expectation of AI use among the 56 Commonwealth countries, its low score for digital and technical capability points to the need for more practical training.
The study also warns that enthusiasm alone will not guarantee better jobs or successful businesses. Stronger links between training programmes, employers and investment will be needed to help young people turn their skills into economic opportunities.
The report identifies five priorities for improving youth AI readiness: affordable and reliable access to technology, practical education, stronger pathways from training into employment and enterprise, AI tools suited to local languages and needs, and safeguards that allow young people to question automated decisions.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created.” – Calvin Ayre, Founder, Ayre Think Tank.
“We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere. Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed.” – Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal, University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus.
WHAT’S NEXT
The study calls on governments, educators and development partners to identify the specific barriers young people face in their countries before deciding where investment is most needed.
For Nigeria, the priority areas include expanding access to technology, strengthening practical digital education, connecting training to employment and enterprise, and supporting AI tools that address local languages and needs.
The effectiveness of programmes such as 3MTT, AI Academy Nigeria and the National AI Innovation Challenge will be important in determining whether the country’s strong reported interest in AI translates into wider economic participation.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria’s 15th-place ranking in the Ayre Index reflects strong enthusiasm for AI among its young population, but the study identifies a significant gap in practical digital capability. Closing that gap will be central to turning the technology’s projected economic benefits into jobs, businesses and higher productivity.
