The cost of rice in Japan surged by 98% in April compared to the same month last year, according to official inflation data released Friday—fueling concerns over food security and compounding political challenges for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration.
The sharp increase, which began several months ago, stems from a complex mix of agricultural, economic, and demographic factors, and has placed Japan’s staple crop at the center of national debate.
At the core of the price spike is a significant shortfall in supply. The summer of 2023 brought record-breaking heat, severely impacting rice yields. This was followed by a surge in consumer demand in early 2024, partly driven by panic-buying after false alarms over a major earthquake.
Tourism has also rebounded dramatically post-pandemic, with record numbers of international visitors fueling demand for rice-based dishes such as sushi. Compounding the issue, some distributors have been accused of stockpiling supplies to capitalize on soaring prices.
Japan’s shrinking agricultural workforce and government land-use policies have further exacerbated the shortage. As domestic rice consumption declined over the years, successive administrations incentivized a reduction in rice cultivation in favor of alternative crops.
Today, nearly 90% of Japan’s rice farms are operated by individuals over the age of 60, and roughly 70% have no successor, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture. The total area dedicated to rice paddies has fallen to 2.3 million hectares in 2024—down from a peak of 3.4 million hectares in 1961.
“The government has long prioritized downsizing rice production to manage supply, but neglected to consider how to stimulate demand,” said Tadao Koike, a third-generation rice merchant in Tokyo. “Now, we’re facing the consequences.”
To stabilize the market, the government began releasing rice from its emergency reserves in February. It marked the first time since the reserve system was established in 1995 that the stocks were deployed in response to supply chain issues rather than natural disasters.
However, analysts say the move has had limited impact. “The government’s stockpile is typically used for blended rice, not for the premium regional varieties most consumers prefer,” explained Masayuki Ogawa, assistant professor at Utsunomiya University. “As a result, overall prices remain elevated.”
The price surge is contributing to broader inflationary pressures, straining household budgets and eroding public support for the government. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which suffered a major setback in last year’s elections, is now governing through a fragile coalition.
The situation was further inflamed last weekend when Agriculture Minister Taku Eto provoked outrage by claiming he never purchases rice personally because supporters supply it to him. Eto has since resigned, but the episode has amplified voter discontent ahead of the upcoming Upper House elections in July.
Still, some analysts believe the worst may be over. “Weekly rice prices have begun to show signs of stabilizing,” said Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics. “We expect rice inflation to ease in the coming months.”
— AFP
