Germany is set to embark on its most significant military buildup since World War II, with likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz announcing plans to vastly increase defence spending.
Speaking in Berlin on Tuesday, Merz and his probable coalition partners from the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) revealed intentions to ease the country’s strict constitutional “debt brake” to allocate hundreds of billions of euros for defence and economic recovery over the coming years.
The announcement follows national elections and coincides with growing concerns over European security, exacerbated by a perceived weakening of the US security umbrella. Tensions were further heightened after a televised dispute between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which led the White House to freeze military aid to Kyiv.
A Strategic Shift in Germany’s Defence Policy
Merz, a longstanding Atlanticist who previously opposed large-scale deficit spending, appears to have altered his stance in response to rapidly evolving geopolitical realities. His CDU/CSU bloc and the SPD have accelerated coalition negotiations in the wake of these developments, with European Union (EU) leaders set to discuss Ukraine and continental defence at a key summit on Thursday.
Manuela Schwesig, a senior SPD figure involved in coalition talks, suggested that Germany’s defence budget could at least double to €100 billion ($107 billion) annually. Additionally, a €500 billion fund is proposed to modernise Germany’s infrastructure and revive the economy after two consecutive years of recession.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius hailed the plans as “a historic day for the army and for Germany,” underscoring the country’s evolving stance on military power after decades of post-war reluctance.
Europe’s Response and Potential Conflicts
Germany’s proposed rearmament comes as its EU partners, particularly France, weigh the implications of Berlin’s growing military ambitions. The move has revived concerns over European cohesion, as previous German defence spending surges—such as the €100 billion fund announced by former Chancellor Olaf Scholz in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine—sparked criticism from Paris and fears of German unilateralism.
“Germany must now take the lead in ensuring Europe’s security,” wrote Der Spiegel, warning that US disengagement could leave Europe vulnerable. However, Bild criticised Merz for making a “180-degree turn” and committing to “gigantic debts.”
Meanwhile, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a separate €800 billion defence and Ukraine support package, raising questions about how Berlin’s plans will align with broader EU strategies.
Jacob Ross of the German Council on Foreign Relations warned that the success of Germany’s defence expansion depends on several factors, including industrial capacity, raw material availability, and inflation risks. He also cautioned that tensions could arise, particularly with France, over the balance of power in Europe.
Germany’s plans must now be passed by the outgoing parliament, requiring a two-thirds majority to amend the debt brake. With the Greens likely to support the measure, the CDU/CSU and SPD must finalise their coalition agreement before taking office and executing their ambitious spending agenda.
