KEY POINTS
• NMDPRA targets Sept. 24, 2028 for transition to a more competitive Willing Buyer, Willing Seller gas market.
• Market readiness will be measured by supply diversity, buyers and sellers, infrastructure, contracts, payments and credible price signals.
• NMDPRA plans to issue Gas Distribution Licences to qualified companies in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Decade of Gas identifies supply, infrastructure, demand, gas to power and LPG as key conditions for market maturity.
MAIN STORY
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has set Sept. 24, 2028 as the target date for Nigeria’s transition to a more competitive and commercially driven Willing Buyer, Willing Seller gas market.
The Authority’s Chief Executive, Rabiu Umar, announced the timeline on Thursday in Abuja at a high level Gas Market Maturity Workshop convened by NMDPRA, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and the Decade of Gas Secretariat.
The workshop was convened to validate Nigeria’s gas market maturity framework and determine the priority actions, sequencing and responsibilities needed to move the market towards a more commercial structure.
Umar said the proposed 24 month transition should culminate in a more market driven gas pricing framework, while stakeholders work to expand gas production and consumption without undermining affordability for Nigerians.
He said progress towards market readiness would be assessed against measurable indicators covering the availability and diversity of gas supply, the quality of buyers and sellers, infrastructure access, contract and payment reliability, market information and credible price signals.
The NMDPRA chief executive also disclosed that the Authority was nearing completion of its gas distribution network and gridding exercise. He said Gas Distribution Licences would be issued to qualified companies in the fourth quarter of 2026.
He added that the initiative would run alongside efforts to increase domestic use of Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas and reduce dependence on imports.
The Coordinating Director of Decade of Gas, Ed Ubong, said Nigeria could achieve a fully functioning Willing Buyer, Willing Seller market before 2030.
Ubong identified gas supply, infrastructure, demand, gas to power and LPG as critical areas for achieving market maturity. He said Nigeria was targeting gas supply of 12.6 Bcf/d by 2030, supported by 16 key infrastructure projects, including the completed OB3 pipeline.
Other projects identified include the AKK pipeline, the Escravos to Odidi connection and the connection of offshore Seplat fields to QIT in Eket.
On demand, Ubong said more than 60 projects had been identified, representing about 15 Bcf/d of potential gas demand by 2030.
He said Umar’s chairmanship of the market maturity process was significant because NMDPRA has a central role in addressing pricing and economic principles affecting supply, demand, infrastructure, power and LPG.
The President of the Nigerian Gas Association, Yetunde Taiwo, described the transition to a Willing Buyer, Willing Seller market as a long standing priority for the association.
Taiwo said the gas industry had recorded significant progress over the past decade but stressed the need for clear and measurable milestones and stronger cooperation among government, regulators and industry to support investment.
THE ISSUES
- Moving towards a market driven gas pricing system will require Nigeria to demonstrate that supply, infrastructure, contracting and payment systems can support more commercial transactions.
- Gas supply and infrastructure remain central to the proposed transition, with the Decade of Gas Secretariat linking market maturity to projects that can expand supply and connect producers with potential buyers.
- Demand will also determine how effectively the market develops. More than 60 projects have been identified as potential sources of additional gas demand by 2030, including requirements linked to power and LPG.
- The transition will have to balance commercial pricing with affordability. NMDPRA has said stakeholders must expand gas production and consumption while ensuring that gas remains affordable for Nigerians.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“This is alongside efforts to deepen domestic utilisation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), and reduce import dependence.” – Rabiu Umar, NMDPRA Chief Executive
“Nigeria’s gas industry had made significant progress over the past 10 years.” – Yetunde Taiwo, President, Nigerian Gas Association
WHAT’S NEXT
NMDPRA is expected to complete its gas distribution network and gridding exercise and begin issuing Gas Distribution Licences to qualified companies in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The broader market maturity process is expected to focus on measurable milestones covering supply, infrastructure, demand, contracting, payments and pricing, with Sept. 24, 2028 set as the target date for the transition.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria is targeting Sept. 24, 2028 for a more commercially driven gas market, but achieving that timeline will depend on progress in supply, infrastructure, demand and market reliability.
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