The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported that global goods trade remained stable in the final quarter of 2024, with early indicators suggesting continued growth into 2025. According to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, the trade momentum indicator inched up slightly to 102.8 in early 2025 from 102.7 in December, signaling that trade volumes remain above trend.
This reading reflects a sustained recovery following the downturn of 2023. However, economists caution that businesses may have temporarily increased imports in anticipation of possible policy shifts, potentially dampening demand later in the year.
Despite these positive signals, the WTO warned that growing trade policy uncertainty and the looming threat of new tariffs could disrupt this stability. The organization highlighted that while North American imports and Asian exports exceeded expectations due to strong demand, European trade lagged, with both exports and imports remaining weak.
The WTO also emphasized the resilience of global trade but noted that escalating trade tensions, including discussions on new tariffs and protectionist measures among major economies, could weigh on trade performance in the second half of 2025. The organization plans to release its next Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report in April, which will provide a clearer picture of evolving trade dynamics.
All six components of the Goods Trade Barometer remained on or above trend, with automotive products (105.5), container shipping (103.7), and air freight (102.7) showing the strongest performance, indicating robust demand in these sectors. Meanwhile, indices for export orders (101.0), electronic components (102.3), and raw materials (101.6) remained closer to the baseline.
Export orders, a key predictor of future trade trends, hovered near 100, underscoring the need for close monitoring of potential shifts in global demand. The WTO warned that if policy uncertainty increases or economic conditions deteriorate, a decline in export orders could signal an impending slowdown in trade.
While early 2025 data suggests that global trade is on a recovery path, underlying risks remain. Rising geopolitical tensions, potential trade policy shifts, and uncertain economic conditions could reshape the trajectory of global commerce. As businesses and policymakers navigate this uncertain landscape, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether trade continues its steady expansion or faces renewed headwinds.
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