World shares, on Thursday, July 13, hit their fourth all-time high in less than a month, as investors wagered policy tightening in the United States would be glacial at best, lifting Wall Street to record peaks and lowering bond yields almost everywhere.
The star performer was the Canadian dollar, which rocketed to 11-month highs after the country’s central bank hiked rates for the first time in seven years and left the door wide open to further moves.
The overall mood was one of relief that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen had not sounded more hawkish in her appearance before Congress, a green light for risk taking.
Sentiment got another boost when China reported upbeat data on exports and imports for June, the latest sign that global trade is finding some real traction again.
It had helped push Asian shares up more than 1 percent and lift MSCI’s 47-country world index to its latest record high, though Europe barely budged.
Traders there were happy to take a breather after a 1.6 percent gain on Wednesday had given the region its best day since April’s French election victory for Emmanuel Macron.
“It mostly seems to be down to Yellen,” Rabobank quantitative analyst Bas Van Geffen said. “The fact that it seems like the Fed is going to take it slowly is being seen as a good sign by the equity markets and by the currency markets.”
One of the Fed chief’s comments that markets latched on to was her view that bank would not need to raise U.S. rates “all that much further” to reach current low estimates of the “neutral” funds rate.
Equities were also underpinned by a drop in bond yields as Yellen also sounded cautious on inflation. Spooked last month by an outbreak of harmony among top central banks about tightening policy, debt markets jitters appear to have evaporated again.
Indeed, markets doubt even that modest Fed tightening will ensue and imply only a 50-50 chance of a rise by December.
Treasuries rallied in reaction, with yields on two-year notes falling to three-week lows, as did bonds in Europe and Asia.
Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield was flat on the day at 0.51 percent. They have now given back a quarter of the rise triggered by last month’s hint from ECB head Mario Draghi that it was readying to scale back stimulus.
Treasuries meanwhile have clawed back a third of their selloff.
The Canadian dollar notched its biggest percentage gain since March 2016 and was last trading near one-year peaks at C$1.2740. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars jetted higher too.
The main loser was the U.S. dollar which slipped to 112.97 on the yen, while the euro edged up to $1.1451. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was within a whisker of nine-month lows at 95.650.
The drop in U.S. yields benefited gold, which pays no interest, and pushed the precious metal up 0.3 percent to $1,223.16 and away from its recent trough of $1,204.45, Reuters reports.