Key points
- Petrol prices across Nigeria rise sharply, approaching N1,400 per litre amid global crude oil surge and geopolitical tensions.
- Dangote Petroleum Refinery increases ex-depot petrol price to N1,275 per litre as Brent crude climbs above $100 per barrel.
- Industry stakeholders warn that prices may exceed N1,500/litre if the Middle East crisis persists and supply disruptions continue.
Main story
Petrol prices across Nigeria are edging close to N1,400 per litre following a fresh increase in the ex-depot price by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and continued volatility in the global crude oil market driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The surge comes as Brent crude oil jumped from $105 per barrel on Monday to $118 on Wednesday, fuelled by ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran and fears over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route.
In response to rising crude prices, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery adjusted its petrol gantry price from N1,200 to N1,275 per litre, while coastal supply prices increased to N1,215 per litre, according to market data and industry sources.
The refinery reportedly suspended its pro forma invoice system temporarily on Tuesday afternoon, disrupting loading schedules and halting petrol and diesel sales to marketers for several hours.
Simultaneously, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) raised official prices of Nigerian crude grades for May-loading cargoes. The Bonny Light grade increased by $6.13 per barrel, while Forcados rose by $7.01 per barrel, reflecting stronger global demand and tightening supply conditions.
Across the country, fuel marketers quickly adjusted pump prices, with stations in Lagos and Ogun selling petrol between N1,315 and N1,350 per litre. In parts of northern Nigeria, prices have reportedly climbed to about N1,400 per litre, with border communities in Ogun State experiencing even higher costs due to supply constraints.
The issues
The rapid increase in petrol prices is being driven by a combination of global and domestic factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising crude oil benchmarks, and volatility in international supply chains.
Industry players also point to Nigeria’s continued reliance on international crude pricing benchmarks, even for locally refined products, as a structural factor contributing to domestic fuel price instability.
Additionally, supply disruptions linked to shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and shifting global production dynamics within OPEC+ have intensified market uncertainty.
What’s being said
The National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, warned that prices could rise beyond N1,500 per litre if the geopolitical crisis worsens.
“This is what we have been introduced to, price volatility… the government is not making any statements about it, so it’s worrisome,” he said.
He urged the Federal Government to adopt stabilisation measures and reinvest gains from high crude prices to cushion transportation and food costs.
Gillis-Harry also noted that the Dangote refinery has become a dominant price setter in the market, adding that retailers have no choice but to follow adjustments.
“Dangote has increased the price again because he is the lord of the manor. So we will keep adjusting,” he said.
Meanwhile, energy economist Bismarck Rewane suggested that the government could stabilise prices through a negotiated crude pricing arrangement with local refineries tied to fixed fuel output costs.
A spokesperson for the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, also called for a shift away from Brent-based pricing for domestic crude supply, arguing that it inflates costs for local refiners.
What’s next
Stakeholders expect continued volatility in fuel pricing as global crude markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Industry experts are urging the Federal Government to consider domestic pricing frameworks for crude supply and strengthen local refining stability.
Oil market analysts also warn that if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist or escalate, crude prices could remain elevated, further impacting downstream fuel costs in Nigeria.
Bottom line
Nigeria’s petrol prices are being pushed higher by a combination of global oil shocks and domestic pricing dynamics, with analysts warning that without policy intervention or geopolitical stabilisation, consumers may face even steeper fuel costs in the coming weeks.
