The average yield on Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) declined in the secondary market as investors engaged in bargain hunting for naira-denominated assets, spurred by emerging signs of disinflation.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose by 105 basis points to 24.23% in March—up from 23.18% in February—based on rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices climbed by 3.90%.
Despite the uptick in inflation, analysts say the market has reacted with optimism, anticipating that monetary policy might remain tight amid evolving global economic sentiment. This has kept interest rate expectations relatively stable in the short term.
In the NTB secondary market, trading activity remained subdued across most maturities. However, demand was slightly stronger at the long end of the curve, particularly for the December 2025 and March 2026 tenors.
AIICO Capital Limited reported that most trades were retail-sized, with limited institutional participation. Nevertheless, average mid-rates on benchmark bills edged downward due to buying interest.
Analysts expect sentiment to remain broadly steady, although trading volumes could ease ahead of the Easter holiday.
Yields fell slightly across the curve, driven by stronger demand at the short and mid-segments. Specifically, the average yield declined by 9 basis points at the short end and 1 basis point at the mid segment, with the 86-day bill falling by 55 bps and the 177-day bill by 1 bp.
Conversely, the long end saw some selloffs, pushing yields higher by 16 basis points overall, with the 240-day bill jumping 75 bps. Despite this, market momentum remained broadly bullish.
TrustBanc Financial Group noted in an investor report that the 19-February bill was quoted at 19.70%/19.20%, compared to 19.50%/19.00% earlier in the session. The 5-February bill experienced some profit-taking, quoted at 19.69%/19.19% versus 19.49%/18.99% at the start of the day.
By the close of trading, the average benchmark NTB yield settled at 20.93%. Meanwhile, the Open Market Operations (OMO) segment saw a sharper pullback, with the average yield falling 80 basis points to 28.3%.
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