National Oil Output Falls Short Of Budget And OPEC Targets In January

Nigeria’s total oil production, including condensates, experienced a significant contraction in the first month of 2026, falling by 6.3 percent year-on-year to 1.627 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the latest National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), this figure represents a notable drop from the 1.737 million bpd recorded in January 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, the industry also saw a 5.4 percent decline from the 1.544 million bpd produced in December 2025, underscoring ongoing challenges in the nation’s upstream sector.

The current output levels indicate that the country is struggling to meet its critical fiscal and international obligations. The 1.627 million bpd realized in January falls short of the 1.84 million bpd benchmark set in the 2026 Federal Budget.

While the market price of approximately $67 per barrel remains slightly above the government’s $64.85 budget floor, the lower production volume threatens the total revenue projections needed to fund national infrastructure and debt servicing. The NUPRC data further revealed that while the month saw a peak production of 1.82 million bpd, the average was pulled down by lows of 1.59 million bpd.

From an international perspective, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported an even tighter squeeze on Nigeria’s primary crude output. Excluding condensates, which the NUPRC currently estimates at 196,028 bpd, OPEC’s direct communication data shows Nigeria produced only 1.459 million bpd in January.

This performance marks a 5 percent year-on-year decline and places the country below its official OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd. As global prices face downward pressure due to geopolitical shifts in Switzerland, the combination of dwindling volumes and softening prices presents a complex fiscal challenge for the year ahead.