At the June 2025 Lagos Business School (LBS) Breakfast Session, renowned economist Bismarck Rewane delivered a robust mid-term economic review, highlighting Nigeria’s complex but cautiously improving economic landscape.
The session, themed “The Clairvoyant Economist Speaks”, employed three evaluative frameworks—Orthodox, Contemporary, and Dynamic models—to assess Nigeria’s performance in H1 2025 and offer projections for H2.
Under the orthodox model, which focuses on traditional macroeconomic indicators, Nigeria scored 51.5%, but dropped to 45.75% when Human Development Index (HDI) variables were included. This points to a disconnect between macroeconomic data and citizens’ welfare—a theme that recurred throughout the presentation.
The contemporary model, which includes investor sentiment and policy effectiveness, showed a better outcome with a 66.05% score, indicating momentum driven by policy reforms and market responsiveness. However, the “growth without welfare” dilemma persists, with households lagging behind market recovery.
The dynamic model revealed that Nigeria, with a comparative score of 36.96%, still trails regional peers such as Ghana and Kenya in competitiveness, particularly in power supply and digital inclusion. Notably, Nigeria’s power consumption per capita stands at just 200.92 kWh, significantly below global peers.
Despite inflationary pressures—projected to moderate to 20% by December—positive signs include a narrowing exchange rate gap, increasing oil production, and a more stable naira. The telecom sector, creative economy, and digital infrastructure were spotlighted as promising investment frontiers.
Rewane urged policymakers to sustain reform momentum while improving inclusivity and human development outcomes to ensure long-term competitiveness and citizen welfare.
📄 Download the full PDF presentation here for a comprehensive analysis.
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