By Emmanuella Opara| October 17th 2026
KEY POINTS
- Nigeria is targeting seven per cent economic growth, above the IMF’s 4.3 per cent projection.
- Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele says fiscal measures will complement monetary policy to accelerate growth.
- The government is addressing food, energy and logistics costs to ease inflationary pressures.
- Oyedele warns that reversing key reforms, particularly fuel subsidy removal, could weaken the naira and undermine investor confidence.
MAIN STORY
Nigeria is targeting seven per cent economic growth, with Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele expressing confidence that the economy could outperform the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projection of 4.3 per cent.
Oyedele, who also serves as Coordinating Minister of the Economy, disclosed this at a news conference on the sidelines of the 2026 World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, on Saturday.
He described the IMF’s forecast as conservative, arguing that the government’s ongoing economic reforms could support stronger growth.
“The projections of the IMF have always turned out to be too conservative. This year will not be different,” he said.
The minister said the government planned to accelerate economic expansion through fiscal measures that would complement the monetary policy efforts of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
He identified food, energy and logistics costs as major sources of inflationary pressure, adding that the government was working to address the challenges.
According to Oyedele, reducing inflation to low single digits could create the conditions for interest rates to fall to single-digit levels, making credit more affordable for businesses.
He noted that businesses currently facing lending rates close to 30 per cent could expand more effectively if borrowing costs declined.
On the foreign exchange market, the minister credited the CBN’s efforts for improvements in stability, saying the naira had remained stable and was appreciating.
Oyedele also defended the government’s broader reform programme, saying it was designed to support sustainable economic growth, attract investment and deliver shared prosperity.
He described “Nigerian Rising” as a way of communicating the country’s reform progress, growing international recognition and emerging economic opportunities.
Among the changes he highlighted were foreign exchange reforms and the restructuring of Nigeria’s tax system within two years.
The minister urged Nigerians to look beyond negative headlines and recognise opportunities arising from the country’s economic transformation.
He maintained that investor interests and public welfare were compatible, arguing that sustainable economic policies could attract investment while improving conditions for citizens.
Oyedele warned that reversing key reforms, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies, could trigger capital flight, weaken the naira and intensify economic pressures.
“Reversing key reforms, particularly fuel subsidy removal, can trigger capital flight, weaken the Naira and create further economic pressures.
“Policy decisions must consider their long-term consequences. Reversing reforms can undermine investor confidence and economic stability,” he said.
He also clarified that discounts offered through commercial pricing arrangements should not automatically be classified as fuel subsidies.
Oyedele said the government’s reform agenda was intended to strengthen the economy, attract investment and create the conditions for faster and more sustainable growth.
THE ISSUES
Nigeria’s seven per cent growth target is above the IMF’s 4.3 per cent projection, setting a more ambitious benchmark for the government’s economic programme.
Achieving the target will depend on the pace of economic expansion, the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies, and progress in addressing inflationary pressures and the cost of borrowing.
High lending rates remain a concern for businesses seeking credit to expand operations, while food, energy and logistics costs continue to put pressure on prices.
The debate over fuel subsidy removal also highlights the challenge of maintaining investor confidence while addressing the economic pressures faced by households and businesses.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“The projections of the IMF have always turned out to be too conservative. This year will not be different,” Taiwo Oyedele, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, said.
“Policy decisions must consider their long-term consequences. Reversing reforms can undermine investor confidence and economic stability,” Oyedele said.
WHAT’S NEXT
The government will seek to accelerate growth through fiscal measures, complement the CBN’s monetary policy efforts and address inflationary pressures linked to food, energy and logistics costs.
The extent to which these measures can lower inflation and borrowing costs while sustaining foreign exchange stability will be important to achieving the seven per cent growth target.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria is targeting seven per cent economic growth, above the IMF’s 4.3 per cent forecast. Oyedele says continued reforms and coordinated economic policies can support stronger expansion, but achieving the target will require progress in tackling inflation, lowering borrowing costs and sustaining economic stability.
