KEY POINTS
- Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
- Year-on-year inflation fell from 20.98 per cent in September 2025, while food inflation eased to 19.59 per cent.
- Core inflation dropped to 12.95 per cent year-on-year, but increased on a month-on-month basis.
- Imo recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 30.04 per cent, while Taraba had the lowest at 1.78 per cent.
MAIN STORY
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 14.63 per cent in September 2026 from 15.39 per cent in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), indicating a slower annual increase in consumer prices.
The NBS disclosed this in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for September, released in Abuja on Thursday. The latest figure represents a decline of 6.35 percentage points from the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in August. The bureau said this meant the average price level increased at a slower rate during the month than in the preceding month.
The CPI, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, rose slightly to 146.38 in September from 146.30 in August, an increase of 0.08 index points.
Food inflation also eased on a year-on-year basis, falling to 19.59 per cent in September from 20.16 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation stood at -1.55 per cent, compared with 1.02 per cent in August, indicating a decline in average food prices relative to the previous month.
Despite the overall moderation, the NBS identified several food items whose price movements contributed to inflation. These included cornflour, maize, white flour, local rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, green beans, Irish potatoes, fresh tomatoes and plantain.
Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, stood at 12.95 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 22.11 per cent in September 2025. However, on a month-on-month basis, core inflation rose to 1.11 per cent from -0.06 per cent in August, indicating renewed monthly price increases in the category.
The report also showed differences between urban and rural inflation. Urban inflation stood at 15.64 per cent year-on-year in September, while rural inflation was 12.46 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation was 0.53 per cent, while rural inflation declined by 0.89 per cent. The figures indicate that average price movements differed between urban and rural areas during the month.
State-level data showed that Imo recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 30.04 per cent, followed by Enugu at 22.38 per cent and Niger at 22.05 per cent. Taraba recorded the lowest rate at 1.78 per cent, followed by Bauchi at 2.89 per cent and Adamawa at 3.66 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo also recorded the highest headline inflation at 8.64 per cent, followed by Kaduna at 4.46 per cent and Sokoto at 3.01 per cent. Adamawa recorded the largest decline at -6.10 per cent, followed by Bauchi at -5.31 per cent and Kano at -4.49 per cent.
Food inflation varied considerably across states. Lagos recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 34.40 per cent, followed by Imo at 33.79 per cent and Ondo at 31.49 per cent. Taraba recorded a year-on-year decline of 7.47 per cent, while Yobe recorded a decline of 0.37 per cent. Borno recorded food inflation of 2.18 per cent.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation was highest in Imo at 5.15 per cent, followed by Ondo at 4.46 per cent and Oyo at 3.82 per cent. Adamawa recorded the steepest decline at 13.84 per cent, followed by Kano at 11.01 per cent and Bauchi at 10.21 per cent.
The September figures show that annual inflation continued to moderate, while monthly price movements remained uneven across categories and states. The decline in food inflation on a monthly basis points to lower average food prices nationally during the period, although the state-level figures show that some areas continued to experience increases.
THE ISSUES
The fall in headline inflation means consumer prices increased more slowly over the 12 months to September than they did over the corresponding period a year earlier. It does not mean that prices have returned to previous levels or that the cost of living has fallen across the board.
The decline in month-on-month food inflation suggests that average food prices fell relative to August, but individual products and locations experienced different price movements. The increase in monthly core inflation also indicates that price pressures persisted in some categories outside farm produce and energy.
The wide differences between states highlight how inflation can vary significantly by location, affecting household purchasing power and business operating costs differently across the country.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“This means that in September, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August.” – National Bureau of Statistics, September 2026 CPI and Inflation Report
“The CPI increased to 146,38 in September, and reflected a 0.08 -point increase from the 146.30 recorded in August.” – National Bureau of Statistics, September 2026 CPI and Inflation Report
“This shows a decline of 9.16 per cent when compared to the 22.11 per cent recorded in September 2025.” – National Bureau of Statistics, September 2026 CPI and Inflation Report
WHAT’S NEXT
The next inflation reports will show whether the decline in annual inflation continues and whether monthly price movements become more stable across food and non-food categories. Changes in food prices and regional inflation will remain important indicators of the pressure on household budgets.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.63 per cent in September, while annual food and core inflation also declined. However, the rise in monthly core inflation and sharp differences between states show that price pressures remain uneven despite the overall moderation.
