KEY POINTS
- The IMF projects Nigeria will contribute 1.5% to worldwide real GDP growth in 2026, ranking it 8th globally and making it the only African nation in the top tier.
- While the ranking signals macroeconomic stability and reform compliance, experts warn it has yet to translate into improved living standards for citizens.
- Economists attribute the projection to government reforms including fuel subsidy removal, FX liberalization, and the repayment of a $3.4 billion COVID-19 loan.
MAIN STORY
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria will be among the top 10 countries driving global economic expansion in 2026. According to the IMF’s real GDP growth projections, Nigeria is expected to account for approximately 1.5% of the world’s incremental economic growth. This places Nigeria roughly 8th in the world, positioned ahead of major economies like Brazil and Germany.
Despite this positive macroeconomic signal, local experts emphasize a sharp contrast between global statistics and domestic realities. Economist Ephraim Audu noted that the ranking reflects Nigeria’s share of incremental global growth rather than the overall size of its economy. He attributed the rating to Nigeria’s adherence to IMF-backed reforms, such as tax adjustments and the total removal of fuel subsidies. However, he cautioned that high inflation, rising production costs, and persistent poverty remain significant hurdles.
Public Finance expert Benjamin Ekeyi described the projection as a “vote of confidence” but noted that Nigeria’s projected 4.4% GDP growth rate for 2026 is still insufficient for a population exceeding 200 million. Comparing Nigeria to Indonesia, Ekeyi pointed out that while both had similar profiles in the late 1990s, Indonesia’s GDP has surged to $1.4 trillion, whereas Nigeria’s remains at an estimated $280 billion. The consensus among experts is that the government must now leverage this fiscal space to invest in power, transport, and technology to generate the quality jobs needed to make growth inclusive.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
- “This is more about the share of global growth driven by Nigeria, not necessarily an indication of its overall GDP size,” stated economist Ephraim Audu.
- Benjamin Ekeyi noted the disconnect: “It represents a vote of confidence… However, it contrasts sharply with the hardship many Nigerians continue to experience.”
- Experts agreed that while the footing is stable, “deliberate investments in manufacturing, agriculture and technology” are required to deliver tangible benefits.
WHAT’S NEXT
- The government is expected to focus on using improved fiscal space to address the infrastructure deficit in power and logistics.
- Implementation of policies to further diversify the economy away from oil will be critical to sustaining the 4.4% growth target.
- Economists will monitor whether the projected growth translates into a reduction in the national poverty rate and an increase in per capita income by late 2026.
BOTTOM LINE
The Bottom Line is that while the IMF recognizes Nigeria as a top-tier engine of global growth, the achievement remains a “paper victory” for most citizens. For this 1.5% global contribution to mean anything at home, the government must move from structural reforms to productivity-driven investments that lower the cost of living.
 has projected that Nigeria will be among the top 10 countries driving global economic expansion in 2026. According to the IMF’s real GDP growth projections, Nigeria is expected to account for approximately 1.5% of the world's incremental economic growth. This places Nigeria roughly 8th in the world, positioned ahead of major economies like Brazil and Germany.){kind=link}