Nigerian Banks Enter “March Madness” To Bridge $200M Recapitalization Gap

As of February 3, 2026, the Nigerian banking sector has officially entered the “final stretch” of its recapitalization journey, with just 56 days remaining until the March 31 deadline.

 A new report from S&P Global Ratings reveals that while the industry has made remarkable progress with 9 out of 10 rated banks already meeting their new capital thresholds, a collective shortfall of $200 million (approx. ₦300 billion) remains to be bridged across the sector. To date, banks have successfully raised ₦2.3 trillion ($1.5 billion), but S&P estimates the total aggregate need at ₦2.5 trillion ($1.7 billion).

The “March Madness” atmosphere is being driven by the few remaining lenders currently in the market for their final tranches of capital. Notable successes in early 2026 include Fidelity Bank, which recently pushed its capital to ₦564.5 billion through a private placement, and FirstHoldco, which confirmed meeting the ₦500 billion international license threshold well ahead of schedule.

\However, the pressure is mounting on Tier-2 and smaller national banks. Analysts predict that this month will see a “flurry of deal execution” as institutions that cannot meet the requirements through public offers or rights issues pivot toward mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or license re-classification.

According to S&P Global, the end of regulatory forbearance in March will also coincide with a test for asset quality. Non-performing loans (NPLs) are expected to stabilize between 6% and 7% in 2026, up from 4.9% in 2024, as banks are forced to recognize legacy oil and gas exposures that were previously shielded.

 Despite these “regulatory headwinds,” the agency remains optimistic, projecting that the newly capitalized banks will be more resilient and capable of supporting Nigeria’s ambition to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030.