By Boluwatife Oshadiya | November 2, 2026
Key Points
- Nigeria’s headline PMI rose to 56.4 in September from 54.3 in August, its highest reading since February 2022
- New orders and business activity recorded their strongest growth since February 2022, prompting firms to increase purchasing and recruitment
- Higher fuel, raw material and staff costs pushed selling prices to a three-month high
Main Story
Nigeria’s private sector recorded its strongest expansion since February 2022 in September, as rising customer demand and new orders lifted business activity, according to the latest S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for Stanbic IBTC.
The headline PMI increased to 56.4 in September from 54.3 in August, signalling a marked improvement in private-sector business conditions. The report attributed the expansion to the eighth consecutive monthly increase in new business, with new orders rising at their fastest pace since February 2022.
Business activity also expanded at its quickest rate since then, with all four sectors monitored by the survey recording growth. Companies responded to increased workloads by raising purchasing activity, building inventories and recruiting additional workers. Inventory accumulation reached its highest level since the end of 2021, while employment growth remained modest, with some firms taking on temporary staff for specific projects.
Despite increased capacity, backlogs of work declined marginally for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, cost pressures intensified. Higher fuel, transport, raw material, food and staff costs pushed purchase prices higher, prompting businesses to increase selling prices at the fastest pace in three months.
The report also recorded improved business confidence, with companies citing expansion plans, including opening new branches and beginning exports, as reasons for optimism about activity over the following 12 months.
What’s Being Said
“Overall business conditions improved significantly in September, with the headline PMI (56.4 points vs August: 54.3 points) rising to a level not seen since February 2022 (57.3 points), thereby ensuring a better third quarter for business activities relative to the second quarter of the year,” said Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research, West Africa, Stanbic IBTC Bank.
Oni also said the stronger third-quarter PMI readings were consistent with projected year-on-year GDP growth of 4.56% in the third quarter of 2026 and a full-year growth estimate of approximately 4.4%, compared with 3.87% in 2025.
What’s Next
- Businesses’ 12-month expansion plans, including new branches and export activity, will be important indicators of whether September’s momentum is sustained
- The next PMI release will provide evidence of whether new orders and output continue to expand while cost pressures remain elevated
The Bottom Line:
The September PMI points to stronger private-sector demand and output, but the simultaneous acceleration in input and selling prices shows that growth is still accompanied by significant cost pressure. Sustaining the expansion will depend on whether businesses can maintain demand and investment without allowing rising operating costs to erode activity.
 report for Stanbic IBTC.){kind=link}