The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), setting out Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions, revenue projections and expenditure priorities for the three years.
Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, disclosed this to State House correspondents after Wednesday’s FEC meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu. He said the framework was jointly prepared by the Budget Office of the Federation and his ministry.
According to Bagudu, the council adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, though fiscal planning will be anchored on a more conservative 1.8 million bpd. The oil price benchmark was set at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512 to the dollar. Inflation is expected to average 18 per cent in 2026.
He explained that the exchange rate projection reflects underlying macroeconomic modelling as well as political dynamics ahead of the general elections.
Based on these assumptions, total federation revenue for 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion. The federal government is expected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments ₦11.85 trillion.
“When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including ₦4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total federal government revenue for 2026 is projected at ₦34.33 trillion — a decline of ₦6.55 trillion or 16 per cent from the 2025 budget estimate,” Bagudu said.
Statutory transfers are projected at about ₦3 trillion, while debt servicing is expected to cost ₦10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent expenditure — covering personnel, pensions and overheads — is pegged at ₦15.27 trillion.
The fiscal deficit for 2026 is projected at ₦20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 per cent of GDP.
Economy Targeted to Hit ₦690tr in 2026
The MTEF forecasts a nominal GDP of over ₦690 trillion in 2026, rising to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028. GDP growth is projected at 4.6 per cent in 2026. Non-oil GDP is expected to grow from ₦550.7 trillion in 2026 to ₦871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is projected to expand from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion over the same period.
Bagudu said President Tinubu is confident that sustaining ongoing reforms and implementing the MTEF faithfully will strengthen macroeconomic stability and place Nigeria on a more robust growth trajectory.
FEC also reviewed submissions from ministries before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), a tool designed to ensure prudent public spending and reinforce fiscal discipline over the medium term.
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