KEY POINTS
• Nigeria’s merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, with a N12.60 trillion surplus.
• ACCI says the surplus could strengthen the naira and external reserves, but warns that its heavy reliance on mineral exports leaves the economy exposed.
• The chamber wants greater focus on manufactured goods, processed agricultural products and refined solid minerals to build productive capacity.
MAIN STORY
The Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry has urged the Federal Government to use Nigeria’s rising trade surplus as an opportunity to deepen economic diversification and expand domestic productive capacity.
Prof. Adesoji Adesugba, First Deputy President of the chamber, made the call in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Abuja on Monday.
Adesugba said figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that merchandise trade increased to N41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, up 19.13 per cent from N34.79 trillion in the first quarter.
The quarter produced a trade surplus of N12.60 trillion, with exports valued at N27.02 trillion compared with imports of N14.42 trillion.
According to Adesugba, the surplus means Nigeria earned considerably more from international trade than it spent during the period and could provide short term support for the naira, external reserves and the balance of payments.
He, however, said the composition of the surplus was more important than its size because Nigeria remained heavily dependent on commodities, particularly crude oil.
Crude oil accounted for N12.91 trillion, or 47.79 per cent of total exports, while mineral products as a whole made up 87.04 per cent of exports.
Adesugba said such a structure leaves Nigeria vulnerable to changes in international commodity prices because a significant share of export earnings remains tied to products whose prices are determined largely outside the country.
He added that a substantial fall in global crude oil prices could weaken a trade surplus built largely on oil earnings, meaning the improvement in the external position did not necessarily indicate a fundamental shift in the country’s production structure.
The chamber official also drew attention to the 12.55 per cent year on year decline in imports. He said the fall could indicate increasing import substitution and weaker demand for foreign goods as domestic production and sourcing expand.
At the same time, he said the import composition offered a potentially positive signal, with machinery and transport equipment accounting for N5.46 trillion, representing 37.83 per cent of imports.
According to him, such imports could expand productive capacity by providing businesses with equipment needed for manufacturing and other economic activities.
Adesugba said the greater concern would arise if imports were concentrated on finished products and consumables that could otherwise be produced locally.
On the export side, he said non crude oil exports reached N14.11 trillion, accounting for 52.21 per cent of total exports, while non oil products contributed N3.73 trillion.
He nevertheless expressed concern about the sharp year on year decline in agricultural exports, saying the mixed performance reinforced the need for deliberate diversification.
He identified manufactured products, processed agricultural goods and refined solid minerals as areas where Nigeria could increase value addition and reduce its dependence on crude oil.
According to him, developing these sectors could also create employment opportunities as the country’s youth population expands.
THE ISSUES
- The N12.60 trillion trade surplus provides a stronger external position in the short term, but its durability depends partly on the composition of export earnings. With crude oil and other mineral products making up a large share of exports, Nigeria remains exposed to international commodity price movements.
- The decline in imports needs to be considered alongside what Nigeria is importing. Machinery and transport equipment accounted for more than a third of imports, which could support domestic productive capacity if businesses use the capital goods to expand production.
- Diversification requires moving beyond the export of raw commodities. Processing agricultural products, manufacturing goods and refining solid minerals would allow Nigeria to capture more value from resources produced within the country.
- The decline in agricultural exports shows that higher total exports do not automatically mean broad based diversification. Expanding non crude and non oil exports would require stronger performance across several productive sectors.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
“The surplus can strengthen the naira, support external reserves and ease pressure on the balance of payments,” – Adesoji Adesugba
“The trade surplus could support a stronger naira, healthier reserves and greater macroeconomic stability in the short term.” – Adesoji Adesugba
“The favourable trade balance should be viewed as an opportunity to accelerate reforms that will make economic growth less dependent on oil.” – Adesoji Adesugba
WHAT’S NEXT
Adesugba urged the government and private sector to channel the favourable trade position towards expanding productive, diversified and value adding capacity.
He said future trade surpluses should increasingly be driven by goods and services produced, grown, manufactured and refined in Nigeria rather than by the country’s extraction of raw resources.
BOTTOM LINE
Nigeria’s N12.60 trillion trade surplus offers stronger external earnings, but ACCI says its heavy reliance on mineral exports remains a vulnerability. The chamber wants the surplus used to expand domestic production and increase the share of value added exports.
