10 Things the NBS May 2026 petrol price watch reveals about Nigeria’s fuel crisis

By Boluwatife Oshadiya |  June 25 2026

KEY POINTS

• Nigeria’s average petrol price hit ₦1,596.25 per litre in May 2026 — a 55.31% jump from ₦1,027.76 in May 2025
• Month-on-month, prices rose 4.13% from ₦1,532.93 in April 2026, continuing a sustained upward trend
• Edo State recorded the highest pump price at ₦1,722.91, while Adamawa remained the most affordable at ₦1,469.83
• The South-South geopolitical zone was the most expensive region (₦1,623.84); the North-West the cheapest (₦1,564.11)
• NBS collected data from over 10,000 respondents across all 774 Local Government Areas to produce the report

INTRODUCTION

Nigeria’s petrol prices have entered uncomfortable territory. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) Price Watch for May 2026, the average retail price of a litre of petrol across the country now stands at ₦1,596.25 — a figure that would have seemed unthinkable when fuel sold for less than ₦200 per litre just a few years ago.

This report, one of the most comprehensive fuel pricing surveys in Africa, was compiled from data gathered across all 774 Local Government Areas by more than 700 NBS field officers. BizWatch Nigeria breaks down the ten most significant findings from the report and what they mean for consumers, businesses, and policymakers across the country.

THE LISTICLE: 10 THINGS THE MAY 2026 NBS PMS PRICE WATCH REVEALS

1. Nigeria’s Average Pump Price Has More Than Doubled Since Mid-2023

The national average pump price of ₦1,596.25 in May 2026 represents a seismic shift in Nigeria’s energy cost landscape. When President Bola Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidies on his inauguration day in May 2023, petrol was selling at approximately ₦175 per litre. That figure has now increased by more than 800% in the space of three years. The May 2026 NBS data captures a price that has climbed 55.31% in just twelve months — from ₦1,027.76 in May 2025 to ₦1,596.25 in May 2026.

The 55.31% year-on-year surge is not merely a statistical footnote. For households that depend on petrol-powered generators for electricity, business owners who pay for logistics and distribution, and commercial drivers who set transport fares based on fuel costs, the difference between last May and this May is felt daily in wallets, kitchens, and workshops across the nation.

The trajectory of Nigeria’s price evolution since subsidy removal illustrates just how exposed ordinary consumers became the moment market forces took over. A country that once prided itself on ‘cheap petrol’ despite being a top-10 global oil producer now records some of the most volatile retail energy costs on the continent.

2. Prices Rose 4.13% in a Single Month — April to May 2026

The month-on-month increase from ₦1,532.93 in April 2026 to ₦1,596.25 in May 2026 represents a ₦63.32 per litre spike within thirty days. That 4.13% single-month movement, while smaller than the dramatic surge of March 2026 when prices jumped 22.55% in one month, remains significant. It signals that even as global crude oil prices began softening after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, those benefits had not yet translated fully into relief at Nigeria’s retail pumps by May.

Industry data from Legit.ng shows that Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has become Nigeria’s dominant domestic fuel supplier, adjusted its ex-depot gantry price at least nine times in the first months of 2026 alone — reflecting just how tightly local retail prices are now tied to global crude oil movements. The refinery cut its price to ₦1,175 per litre on June 15, 2026, following the easing of geopolitical tensions, but that reduction came weeks after the NBS May survey period had closed, meaning consumers did not feel the benefit in May.

3. Edo, Bauchi, and Benue Were the Most Expensive States for Petrol

Among all 36 states and the FCT, three recorded the highest average pump prices in May 2026:

• Edo State: ₦1,722.91 per litre — the highest in the country and ₦126.66 above the national average
• Bauchi State: ₦1,715.47 per litre — a 7.95% monthly increase, driven partly by distance from major supply depots
• Benue State: ₦1,698.57 per litre — up 7.32% from April, one of the highest monthly jumps in the North Central zone

Edo’s position at the top is striking given that the South-South zone, which includes Edo, is home to significant oil infrastructure. Yet infrastructure alone does not translate into cheap pump prices in a fully deregulated market where logistics, depot access, and marketers’ margins all factor into the final price paid by consumers. Bauchi’s high price reflects a recurring pattern: states in the North-East and North-Central corridors that are far from coastal depots and have limited pipeline infrastructure routinely pay premiums. Benue, which clocked a year-on-year increase of 68.29% — one of the largest in the country — demonstrates how severely the subsidy removal has recalibrated costs in previously insulated interior markets.

4. Adamawa, Katsina, and Sokoto Offered the Cheapest Petrol in Nigeria

Counterintuitively, three Northern states recorded the country’s lowest average pump prices in May 2026:

• Adamawa State: ₦1,469.83 per litre — the most affordable in Nigeria for the second consecutive month
• Katsina State: ₦1,470.63 per litre — a mere ₦0.80 above Adamawa
• Sokoto State: ₦1,489.33 per litre — also notable for recording the lowest year-on-year increase at 35.39%

Adamawa’s low prices likely reflect proximity to supply routes from Cameroon and competition dynamics among local marketers. Sokoto’s relatively restrained year-on-year increase of 35.39% compared to the national 55.31% is particularly telling — it had the highest absolute base price in May 2025 at ₦1,100 per litre, meaning it began from a higher floor and has not increased as steeply in percentage terms. For business owners, this geographic price arbitrage matters enormously. Transport operators, haulage companies, and manufacturers with production or logistics infrastructure in the North-West may have an unintended cost advantage over those based in the South-South or North-East.

5. The South-South Zone Paid the Most; the North-West Paid the Least

Zonal analysis from the NBS report reveals a clear geographic price gradient:

Zone	Average PMS Price (May 2026)	Rank
South-South	₦1,623.84	Highest
North-East	₦1,622.76	2nd Highest
North-Central	₦1,589.92	3rd
South-East	₦1,593.91	4th
South-West	₦1,588.96	5th
North-West	₦1,564.11	Lowest

The ₦59.73 gap between the South-South (₦1,623.84) and the North-West (₦1,564.11) may appear narrow, but at scale — for a depot operator purchasing 30,000 litres a month, for example — it amounts to nearly ₦1.8 million in differential costs. These regional disparities are rooted in a combination of logistics infrastructure, proximity to supply points, and varying degrees of market competition among depot operators and independent marketers. The South-South’s high prices are notable given that it hosts the Niger Delta, Nigeria’s oil-producing heartland.

6. Yobe Had the Highest Year-on-Year Increase: 75.25% in Twelve Months

Among all states, Yobe recorded the steepest year-on-year percentage increase in May 2026 — a staggering 75.25% rise from ₦950.60 in May 2025 to ₦1,665.91 in May 2026. This is nearly 20 percentage points higher than the national average of 55.31%.

Other states with sharp year-on-year increases include:

• Gombe: 70.34% (from ₦990.00 to ₦1,686.37)
• Edo: 68.91% (from ₦1,020.00 to ₦1,722.91)
• Benue: 68.29% (from ₦1,009.31 to ₦1,698.57)
• Taraba: 67.64% (from ₦983.00 to ₦1,647.94)

These states share a common thread: they started from comparatively low bases in May 2025 — some below the national average at the time — and have since experienced rapid convergence toward a new, higher national floor. The data exposes how the removal of the uniform petrol subsidy has disproportionately affected states that previously benefited most from artificially suppressed prices. Markets that once paid below-average rates have seen prices ratchet upward at the fastest pace as market forces normalise prices across geographies.

7. Niger and Enugu Recorded the Biggest Single-Month Surges in May

While many states recorded modest month-on-month changes, two states stood out for unusually large May increases compared to April:

• Enugu: 9.79% month-on-month increase — from ₦1,430.18 in April to ₦1,570.23 in May 2026
• Niger: 9.58% month-on-month increase — from ₦1,403.89 in April to ₦1,538.33 in May 2026

By contrast, Anambra recorded the smallest monthly movement, with a marginal 0.26% increase (₦1,515.72 to ₦1,519.72), and Rivers State posted just 0.09% — virtually flat month-on-month. These variations suggest that local supply conditions, depot restocking cycles, competition among marketers, and road infrastructure all play roles in determining how quickly global price signals translate to the pump in any given state. Rivers State’s near-flat movement is consistent with its role as a major refining and distribution hub, giving it greater supply stability than interior states like Enugu or Niger.

8. Sokoto Had the Lowest Year-on-Year Increase at Just 35.39%

Sokoto’s year-on-year increase of 35.39% — from ₦1,100 in May 2025 to ₦1,489.33 in May 2026 — stands as the most restrained annual movement in the country. Adamawa comes close at 39.53%, while Anambra follows at 40.18% and Osun at 44.92%.

The pattern across these ‘low-YoY-increase’ states tells its own story: Sokoto and Adamawa, both bordering international frontiers, appear to benefit from cross-border supply dynamics and alternative distribution routes. Anambra, a commercially active South-East hub, likely benefits from competitive market density with multiple depots and distributors. Osun, in the South-West, benefits from proximity to Lagos supply infrastructure.

The lesson for policymakers is that market competition and supply chain diversity are among the most effective tools for moderating fuel price growth at the retail level — a finding that has implications for the ongoing debate about fuel depot infrastructure investment in underserved regions.

9. The 12-Month Price Trend Reveals a Market Under Structural Pressure

The NBS May 2026 report is best understood as one data point in a volatile twelve-month trajectory. The timeline of national average prices over the past year tells a story of sustained upward pressure, geopolitical shocks, and deregulation dynamics:

1. May 2025: ₦1,027.76 (base point)
2. February 2026: ₦1,051.47 — a 1.62% MoM increase; still down 15.60% YoY at that point, reflecting earlier price corrections
3. March 2026: ₦1,288.54 — a 22.55% single-month spike, driven by Brent crude surging above $100 per barrel following the US-Israel-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions
4. April 2026: ₦1,532.93 — an 18.97% MoM jump as Dangote Refinery raised gantry prices multiple times
5. May 2026: ₦1,596.25 — a further 4.13% increase

The March-to-April surge was the most dramatic in the trend. It coincided with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increasing its gantry price to ₦1,175 per litre as global crude hit approximately $115-$119 per barrel amid Middle East hostilities. The National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, had warned at the height of the crisis that petrol could approach ₦2,000 per litre if the conflict persisted. It did not reach that level, but the trajectory showed just how exposed Nigeria’s deregulated market had become to international shocks.

As of mid-June 2026, some relief emerged. Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot price to ₦1,175 per litre following a ceasefire announcement and crude oil prices falling back toward $83 per barrel. But by that point, the May NBS survey had already closed, and the relief remains to be quantified in the June report.

10. The Data Was Collected From Over 10,000 Respondents Across All 774 LGAs

One of the most underreported aspects of the NBS PMS Price Watch is the methodological rigour behind it. The May 2026 report was compiled from data gathered across all 774 Local Government Areas in all 36 states and the FCT, using a field team of more than 700 NBS staff. Over 10,000 respondents contributed to the survey, with price estimates derived from household fuel expenditure weights and actual prices paid at retail outlets.

This methodology makes the NBS Price Watch one of the most geographically comprehensive consumer price surveys in Africa. Unlike surveys that rely on a limited number of urban sample points, the NBS approach captures price realities in rural communities, secondary towns, and border localities — communities that often bear the highest transport cost burden for fuel precisely because they are furthest from major supply infrastructure.

For analysts, investors, and policymakers, this breadth of data offers a reliable baseline for decisions around logistics planning, monetary policy, inflation modelling, and social protection targeting. For the NBS, it represents a commitment to statistical transparency at a moment when the credibility of price data has never mattered more to public discourse.

FULL STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWN: PMS AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES (₦)

Zone	State	May-25 (₦)	Apr-26 (₦)	May-26 (₦)	MoM %	YoY %
North Central	Abuja (FCT)	1,029.80	1,553.75	1,602.64	3.15	55.63
	Benue	1,009.31	1,582.75	1,698.57	7.32	68.29
	Kogi	986.67	1,474.31	1,534.32	4.07	55.51
	Kwara	1,038.06	1,535.78	1,555.67	1.30	49.86
	Nasarawa	992.00	1,546.89	1,576.12	1.89	58.88
	Niger	991.08	1,403.89	1,538.33	9.58	55.22
	Plateau	991.05	1,580.79	1,623.76	2.72	63.84
North East	Adamawa	1,053.40	1,417.58	1,469.83	3.69	39.53
	Bauchi	1,053.73	1,589.07	1,715.47	7.95	62.80
	Borno	1,034.93	1,476.12	1,551.07	5.08	49.87
	Gombe	990.00	1,586.62	1,686.37	6.29	70.34
	Taraba	983.00	1,581.31	1,647.94	4.21	67.64
	Yobe	950.60	1,599.05	1,665.91	4.18	75.25
North West	Jigawa	1,079.02	1,572.53	1,650.99	4.99	53.01
	Kaduna	1,020.83	1,534.11	1,573.46	2.57	54.14
	Kano	988.16	1,579.30	1,607.27	1.77	62.65
	Katsina	992.22	1,406.28	1,470.63	4.58	48.22
	Kebbi	1,021.79	1,501.03	1,554.94	3.59	52.18
	Sokoto	1,100.00	1,404.16	1,489.33	6.07	35.39
	Zamfara	1,093.21	1,564.25	1,602.12	2.42	46.55
South East	Abia	1,059.02	1,557.39	1,653.91	6.20	56.17
	Anambra	1,084.13	1,515.72	1,519.72	0.26	40.18
	Ebonyi	1,060.18	1,537.48	1,633.38	6.24	54.07
	Enugu	1,054.59	1,430.18	1,570.23	9.79	48.89
	Imo	987.86	1,573.08	1,592.34	1.22	61.19
South South	Delta	1,067.34	1,588.86	1,667.68	4.96	56.25
	Edo	1,020.00	1,595.74	1,722.91	7.97	68.91
	Rivers	981.67	1,579.41	1,580.76	0.09	61.03
South West	Ekiti	1,001.19	1,547.72	1,598.56	3.28	59.66
	Lagos	1,077.05	1,486.17	1,561.22	5.05	44.95
	Ogun	1,013.13	1,529.67	1,598.32	4.49	57.76
	Ondo	1,083.47	1,573.56	1,598.70	1.60	47.55
	Osun	1,060.58	1,521.85	1,537.00	1.00	44.92
	Oyo	1,038.01	1,555.32	1,639.97	5.44	57.99
NATIONAL	Grand Total	1,027.76	1,532.93	1,596.25	4.13	55.31

THE ISSUES

Deregulation Without Insulation: The Core Structural Tension

At the heart of Nigeria’s fuel price crisis is a structural contradiction that the NBS data makes plain. Nigeria is Africa’s largest crude oil producer and holds the continent’s largest proven oil reserves — enough, by some estimates, to supply domestic demand for over two centuries. Yet it continues to pay among the highest retail petrol prices on the continent.

The reason, as a presidential aide acknowledged in April 2026, is not primarily global oil market shocks but the removal of fuel subsidies and the full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector under the current administration. Since May 2023, Nigeria has dismantled the price controls and state-funded subsidy mechanisms that had kept retail prices artificially low for decades, replacing them with a market-driven pricing framework in which the Dangote Petroleum Refinery — now Africa’s largest — sets gantry prices that cascade through the distribution chain to the consumer.

The NMDPRA has stated that fluctuations in pump prices are a direct result of market dynamics under the deregulated sector. But market forces alone do not address Nigeria’s structural challenge: the country lacks strategic petroleum reserves to cushion supply and price shocks, its pipeline infrastructure is incomplete, and it cannot fully source crude domestically for the Dangote Refinery due to oil-backed loan agreements that commit a large share of output to export.

The Geography of Inequality

The price disparity between states — ₦1,469.83 in Adamawa versus ₦1,722.91 in Edo, a gap of ₦253.08 — is not accidental. It is the product of logistics costs, depot infrastructure, road quality, and the number of competing marketers in any given market. States in the far North and South-West, which historically benefited from better supply networks or border trade, tend to offer more competitive prices. States in the North-East, North-Central, and oil-producing South-South are often penalised by geography.

This geography of inequality has a compounding effect. Higher fuel prices mean higher transport fares, higher commodity prices at local markets, higher generator operating costs, and higher production input costs for small businesses — all in the same locations where incomes are often below the national average. The fuel price map, in many respects, mirrors Nigeria’s broader map of economic inequality.

WHAT’S BEING SAID

“Global oil markets are experiencing extreme volatility, with crude prices rising from the mid-$60 range to nearly $120 per barrel within a week. The refinery is fully exposed to international commodity markets, including crude oil prices, freight rates, insurance, and financing costs,” said David Bird, Managing Director/CEO, Dangote Petroleum Refinery, in March 2026.

“We are filled with a deep sense of betrayal as the federal government clandestinely increases the pump price of PMS. It looks like the only thing this government is known for is the increase in the pump price of petrol without commensurate capacity of Nigerians or mitigatory measures,” said Joe Ajaero, President, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), in a statement responding to earlier petrol price increases.

“Nigeria’s heavy reliance on petrol leaves motorists exposed to frequent price shocks. Affordable public transport, as well as the promotion of Compressed Natural Gas and electric vehicles, could help reduce the burden,” said Shehu Liman, economic analyst, as quoted by Leadership newspaper in May 2026.

“Fluctuations in fuel pump prices are a direct result of market dynamics under Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum sector,” stated the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), in response to price movements in early 2026.

An Uber driver, Osas Pascal, captured the human cost plainly, telling reporters: “After spending [so much] on fuel, I was often unable to recover even that in earnings, making the business unsustainable.”

WHAT’S NEXT

• Dangote Refinery’s June price cut: On June 15, 2026, the refinery reduced its ex-depot gantry price to ₦1,175 per litre, reflecting softer crude oil prices. If sustained, this could translate to retail price relief in the June NBS Price Watch report.
• The June NBS PMS Price Watch: Expected to be published in July 2026, the June report will be the first to capture retail price movements following the Dangote Refinery’s mid-June cut and the post-ceasefire easing of global crude oil prices.
• CNG and EV infrastructure rollout: The Presidential Initiative on CNG and Electric Vehicles continues to be cited by government as a medium-term strategy to reduce Nigerians’ dependence on petrol. Mass deployment of CNG conversion kits and refuelling stations remains a critical variable for long-term price relief.
• Market competition dynamics: As independent marketers adjust to Dangote Refinery’s dominant position in domestic supply, pricing competition among depot operators could intensify. Industry stakeholders have projected that pump prices could approach ₦1,200 per litre in the medium term if crude prices continue to soften and exchange rate stability holds.

BOTTOM LINE

The Bottom Line: The NBS May 2026 PMS Price Watch is not just a fuel report — it is a cost-of-living report, a logistics report, and a governance report all in one. At ₦1,596.25 per litre, Nigeria’s average petrol price reflects the cumulative effects of subsidy removal, naira devaluation, global crude oil shocks, infrastructure deficits, and incomplete deregulation reform. The data is clear: Nigerians are paying more for petrol than at any point in the country’s history, and the burden is not shared equally. Until strategic petroleum reserves are established, domestic crude-to-refinery pipelines are completed, and alternative energy transitions gain meaningful scale, the pump price will remain one of the most consequential numbers in the Nigerian economy — touching everything from the cost of a bus ride to the price of eba on a dinner table.

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