Seven publicly listed Nigerian companies have projected a combined after-tax profit of N58.9 billion for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting cautious optimism despite a 6.09% decline from the N62.7 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. BusinessDay’s analysis of financial disclosures highlights mixed expectations across the firms, underscoring the challenges and opportunities within Nigeria’s economic landscape.
Leading the profit forecast is FCMB Group, which anticipates a rise in after-tax profit to N31.9 billion, compared to N28.7 billion in Q1 2024. Similarly, Eterna Plc expects a remarkable turnaround, projecting a profit of N431 million after reporting a significant loss of N4.06 billion in the same period last year. Custodian Investment Plc also foresees marginal growth, targeting N11.1 billion in after-tax profit, up from N10.7 billion.
However, the outlook is not universally positive. Geregu Power Plc has forecasted a decline in profit to N14.4 billion, down from N15.3 billion in Q1 2024. MRS Oil projects a decrease to N1.52 billion from N1.99 billion, while NEM Insurance anticipates a sharp drop to N2.12 billion, compared to N10.54 billion last year. Similarly, SUNU Assurance Plc expects profits to fall to N601 million, a significant decline from N2.39 billion.
Despite these mixed projections, analysts remain optimistic about the resilience of Nigerian businesses. Financial expert Ifeanyi Nwankwo highlighted the adaptability of leading firms amidst economic reforms. “The profit growth forecasts for some companies demonstrate their strategic response to challenging economic conditions, leveraging investments to sustain growth,” he remarked.
Nigeria’s economic performance in 2024 has shown resilience, with GDP growth rising to 3.46% in Q3, up from 3.19% in Q2. However, growth in 2025 is projected to remain subdued, with Veriv Africa’s 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook forecasting a marginal GDP growth rate of 3.64%.
The report attributed the sluggish expansion to low productivity in critical sectors and weak investment levels. While the services sector is expected to drive economic growth, it may not translate into significant employment gains, posing further challenges to economic recovery.
Adding to the concerns, the 2025 outlook highlighted persistent cost pressures, with crude oil prices forecasted to average $82 per barrel, inflation expected to reach 34.52%, and the naira trading at approximately N1790 per US dollar in the parallel market. Petrol prices are anticipated to hover around N1300 per litre, reflecting the ongoing impact of subsidy reforms and foreign exchange adjustments despite the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery.
Nigeria’s economic activities contracted for the second consecutive month in November 2024, as indicated by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The composite PMI fell to 48.9 points, remaining below the 50-point benchmark that signals economic expansion.
The report revealed a broad-based slowdown, with declines recorded across all components of the index. Of the 36 sub-sectors assessed, only 14 experienced growth, led by transportation equipment. In contrast, 22 subsectors reported declines, with transportation and warehousing experiencing the steepest drops.
The mixed profit forecasts and macroeconomic indicators highlight the complexities facing Nigeria’s economy as it enters 2025. While some companies have demonstrated resilience through strategic adaptations, broader structural challenges continue to weigh on economic performance.
