Global oil markets climbed sharply on Monday as intensifying Russia-Ukraine hostilities reignited fears of supply disruptions, compounded by a modest production increase from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).
Brent crude futures advanced 1.3% to $66.34 per barrel, up from $65.45 at the previous close, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.4%, trading at $62.60 per barrel from Friday’s $61.70.
The price rally followed Moscow’s largest air assault on Ukraine since the war began, escalating geopolitical tensions and raising expectations of tougher sanctions. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian forces deployed over 800 drones, alongside four ballistic and nine cruise missiles, targeting Kyiv in an unprecedented strike. The Ukrainian Air Force reported most drones were intercepted, but at least 54 UAVs and nine missiles hit the capital, including a direct strike on a government building.
Speaking before his departure to New York, U.S. President Donald Trump warned he was prepared to escalate sanctions against Russia. European Council President Antonio Costa confirmed the bloc was accelerating plans for additional measures and would send a delegation to Washington to coordinate policy.
Traders fear that prolonged conflict and mounting sanctions could deepen global supply concerns, supporting higher crude prices. At the same time, Trump’s sanctions rhetoric injected uncertainty into demand forecasts, stoking concerns about weaker global economic growth.
Adding to supply-side pressures, OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-anticipated production increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in October. The decision, driven by major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, undershot market expectations, which had anticipated a more significant boost.
The alliance had previously raised output by 547,000 bpd in September and 548,000 bpd in August. Analysts suggest the restrained increase signaled OPEC+’s caution in the face of uncertain demand and volatile geopolitical dynamics.
Market watchers say the combination of war-related risks and constrained supply continues to underpin oil’s upward momentum, though concerns about slowing global growth may limit the rally in the near term.
