Keypoints
- NNPC Ltd announced that national crude oil output has climbed from 960,000 bpd in 2022 to an average of 1.71 million bpd, peaking at 1.84 million bpd in 2025.
- GCEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari attributed the resurgence to an “integrated energy security model” involving community surveillance and kinetic military deployment.
- Aliko Dangote confirmed that NNPC crude deliveries to his refinery doubled in March, with 10 cargoes supplied under both naira and dollar arrangements.
- Despite the increase, the Dangote Refinery still faces a shortfall of 19 cargoes for optimal operations, forcing continued imports from the United States.
Main Story
Nigeria’s oil production has entered a recovery phase, nearly doubling its 2022 lows through a massive crackdown on oil theft and pipeline sabotage.
Speaking at a Parliamentary Roundtable in Abuja on Wednesday, NNPC GCEO Bashir Bayo Ojulari revealed that the “integrated energy security model”, a collaboration between the military, private security, and local communities has successfully restored investor confidence. This production boost is a cornerstone of the government’s strategy to stabilize the economy and meet the growing demands of domestic industrialization.
The announcement coincided with a visit by UN Deputy Secretary General Amina Mohammed to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, where Aliko Dangote reported a significant uptick in domestic crude supply.
In March alone, the refinery received 10 cargoes from the NNPC. However, Dangote raised concerns regarding the “trader preference” of International Oil Companies (IOCs), which often bypass local refineries to sell to international middlemen. This practice forces the refinery to repurchase Nigerian crude at higher costs, impacting the final price of fuel for Nigerian consumers.
The Issues
The primary challenge remains the supply gap for domestic refining. While production is up, the Dangote Refinery requires 29 cargoes for optimal efficiency but only received 10 from local sources in March. The refinery must solve the problem of high repurchase costs by securing more naira-based crude allocations to avoid the volatility of international traders. Furthermore, while the current security model has increased output, the Joint Senate and House Committee emphasized that the system must ensure fairness and equity for the host communities involved in pipeline protection to prevent a resurgence of host-level sabotage.
What’s Being Said
- “The resurgence of production is due to the effective tackling of the twin menace of oil theft and pervasive pipeline sabotage,” stated Bashir Bayo Ojulari, GCEO of NNPC Ltd.
- Aliko Dangote noted that while supply has improved, IOCs’ preference for traders leads to “higher repurchase costs… with broader implications for fuel pricing.”
- Senate President Godswill Akpabio called for total collaboration among stakeholders to resolve all remaining challenges impeding production growth.
- Hon. Julius Ihonvbere urged the forum to evaluate progress through the lens of “fairness and equity” for all participants in the energy value chain.
What’s Next
- Naira-Based Crude Sales: The refinery is expected to push for expanded naira-denominated crude purchase agreements to lower the cost of domestic fuel production.
- Legislative Oversight: The National Assembly will likely review the “integrated security model” to formalize community-embedded surveillance into long-term policy.
- IOC Engagement: Regulatory agencies are expected to meet with International Oil Companies to discuss “domestic crude supply obligations” to prioritize local refineries over international traders.
Bottom Line
Nigeria’s jump to 1.71 million barrels per day proves that the security-led approach to oil theft is working. However, the true test of this “decisive new phase” will be whether the NNPC can funnel enough of that crude into local refineries to finally bring down fuel prices for the average Nigerian.
