Criminal gangs in Nigeria have turned their attention from oil pipelines to gas conduits, engaging in high-risk operations to steal valuable condensate. This dangerous shift has significantly disrupted exports from Africa’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, raising concerns over national energy security and global market stability.
For decades, oil theft has plagued Nigeria’s Niger Delta region, where criminals tapped crude pipelines to refine and sell stolen oil. However, a recent government crackdown on crude oil theft has forced these syndicates to target gas pipelines instead. Their focus is now on extracting condensate—an ultra-light oil easier to refine in makeshift facilities than crude oil.
“It’s a perilous and high-risk operation that doesn’t always succeed. But when it does, the financial returns are substantial,” said Effiong Okon, Managing Director of ANOH Gas Plant, a subsidiary of Seplat Energy operating a $700 million gas project in the region.
The surge in condensate theft has severely reduced gas supply to Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), a joint venture between the Nigerian government, TotalEnergies, Shell, and Eni. According to commodities tracking firm ICIS, NLNG’s exports dropped sharply in February, with the plant receiving only 20% of its required gas supply.
This forced the company to shut down processing units, exacerbating Nigeria’s declining share of the global LNG market, which fell from 6% in 2020 to 3.5% in 2024, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).
Although five of NLNG’s six production units have resumed operations, experts warn that continued disruptions could further destabilise the global gas market.
Nigeria’s government has intensified security measures to combat oil theft since President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. These efforts include deploying drones and fighter jets to destroy illegal refining sites and hiring private security firms—often led by former militants—to protect major crude pipelines. This strategy has increased oil production by over 40% compared to three years ago.
“Improved security around oil pipelines is driving criminals toward gas infrastructure,” noted Salahuddeen Tahir, Head of Assets and Investments Management at NNPC Gas & Power Investment.
Unlike crude oil theft, tapping gas pipelines requires advanced technical expertise due to the high pressure at which gas is transported. A rupture could result in catastrophic explosions or uncontrollable fires.
“These pipelines operate under intense pressure. Any rupture poses a significant risk of explosion and widespread destruction,” warned Claudio Steuer, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
The stolen condensate, which fetches prices comparable to Nigeria’s premium crude grades like Forcados and Bonny Light, is refined or used directly in generators. It is openly sold in southern cities such as Port Harcourt and Aba.
The theft comes at a critical time as Nigeria plans to ramp up condensate production to boost its overall output. Condensate production is not subject to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cap, giving Nigeria a strategic advantage.
The country aims to produce a combined output of 3 million barrels per day, with condensate accounting for half of that target, according to Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum.
NLNG has acknowledged the threat and stated that it is working closely with government agencies to enhance the security of upstream production and transmission infrastructure. However, specific details on the measures being taken remain unclear.
