Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States deteriorated sharply in the first nine months of 2025, with exports plunging by nearly ₦1 trillion while imports from the American market more than doubled, reversing a surplus position recorded a year earlier. The shift, driven largely by Washington’s new tariff regime, has left Nigeria facing a widening trade deficit and renewed concerns over export vulnerability.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. fell to ₦3.65 trillion between January and September 2025, down from ₦4.59 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024. The decline represents a contraction of 20.5 per cent, or ₦940.98 billion in lost export earnings.
In contrast, Nigeria’s imports from the United States surged to ₦6.80 trillion over the same nine-month period, compared with ₦3.01 trillion recorded a year earlier. The 125.5 per cent increase, amounting to ₦3.78 trillion, resulted in Nigeria importing significantly more goods from the U.S. than it exported in 2025.
As a result, Nigeria recorded a trade deficit of approximately ₦3.15 trillion with the United States during the first nine months of 2025, a sharp reversal from the ₦1.57 trillion trade surplus posted in the same period of 2024.
The downturn coincided with the U.S. government’s implementation of a so-called “reciprocal tariff” policy. Under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in late July, Nigeria’s tariff rate was raised from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, with the policy taking effect on August 7, 2025.
Although crude oil exports were exempted in several instances, the higher tariffs applied to a broad range of non-oil Nigerian products, creating uncertainty among U.S. importers and dampening demand both ahead of and after the policy’s implementation.
While crude oil remained largely shielded, non-oil exports bore the brunt of the disruption. In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. rose steadily on a quarterly basis—from ₦1.31 trillion in Q1 to ₦1.59 trillion in Q2 and ₦1.69 trillion in Q3. Imports during that period remained moderate, resulting in quarterly trade surpluses that culminated in a cumulative surplus of ₦1.57 trillion.
That trajectory reversed dramatically in 2025. Exports opened the year at ₦1.54 trillion in Q1, fell to ₦1.36 trillion in Q2, and then collapsed to ₦743.63 billion in Q3. Imports, however, surged from ₦1.42 trillion in Q1 to ₦2.16 trillion in Q2, before jumping further to ₦3.22 trillion in Q3.
Quarter-on-quarter data reveal that exports declined by 11.9 per cent between Q1 and Q2 2025, before plunging by 45.3 per cent between Q2 and Q3. Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising by 51.8 per cent between Q1 and Q2 and increasing by another 49.1 per cent between Q2 and Q3, significantly widening Nigeria’s trade deficit.
Year-on-year comparisons show that exports grew by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 relative to Q1 2024, but the trend reversed thereafter. Exports declined by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and collapsed by 56.0 per cent in Q3. Imports increased across all quarters, rising by 40.9 per cent in Q1, 123.5 per cent in Q2, and 209.4 per cent in Q3.
Product-level data further highlights the imbalance. In Q1 2025, crude petroleum oils dominated Nigeria’s exports to the U.S., valued at ₦779.38 billion, followed by urea, jet fuel, petroleum gases, and cocoa beans. Imports during the same period were led by crude petroleum oils worth ₦726.84 billion, alongside used diesel vehicles, lubricants, soya beans, and butanes.
By Q2 2025, Nigeria’s export basket narrowed significantly, with cocoa beans, urea, natural rubber, and leather products accounting for most shipments. Imports expanded sharply, driven largely by crude petroleum oils valued at ₦1.34 trillion, alongside used vehicles, wheat, motor spirit, and denatured alcohol.
In Q3 2025, exports dwindled further to minor items such as soya bean flour, cocoa powder preparations, and technically specified natural rubber. Imports continued to surge, with crude petroleum oils alone rising to ₦2.31 trillion, alongside strong inflows of used vehicles, wheat, and industrial plastics.
By mid-2025, the United States had dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations, despite remaining one of the country’s largest sources of imports. The figures underscore structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade profile and the exposure of its export earnings to external policy shifts.
Responding to the developments, President Bola Tinubu said his administration remains unfazed by the U.S. trade policy direction, citing Nigeria’s improving economic fundamentals and rising non-oil revenues as buffers against external shocks. “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side,” the President said.
Similarly, Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, stated that Nigeria would not rush into retaliatory measures but would remain focused on reform, diversification, and market expansion. She noted that while the U.S. remains an important partner, Nigeria is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and expanding trade ties with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Trade stakeholders, including the Nigerian-American Chamber of Commerce and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, have described the tariffs as both a challenge and an opportunity to deepen non-oil export diversification.
Economists echoed similar sentiments. Dr Aliyu Ilias, CEO of CSA Advisory, said the tariffs present an opportunity for Nigeria to adapt and build resilience, particularly by leveraging its participation in BRICS and forging new trade alliances. Meanwhile, Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, downplayed the long-term impact of the tariffs, noting Nigeria’s limited trade exposure to the U.S.
However, Yusuf identified U.S. visa restrictions as a more significant challenge to bilateral trade and investment flows. Under a recent proclamation, holders of several visa categories—including business, tourist, student, and exchange visas—will be barred from entering the United States from January 1, 2026, affecting Nigerians and citizens of 16 other African countries.
The U.S. government cited border security concerns and high visa overstay rates as justification, a move that has generated diplomatic unease and raised fresh questions about the future of Nigeria–U.S. economic relations.
