KEY POINTS
- Headline inflation in Nigeria eased slightly to 15.06% in February 2026, down from 15.10% in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
- Year-on-Year Improvement: The current rate is significantly lower than the 26.27% recorded in February 2025, reflecting an 11.21% decline over the past 12 months.
- Month-on-Month Surge: Despite the yearly dip, monthly inflation jumped to 2.01% from a negative position of -2.88% in January, indicating a sharp rise in the average price level within the last 30 days.
- Food Inflation: On a monthly basis, food prices surged by 4.69%, driven by the rising cost of staples such as beans, cassava, yam flour, and crayfish.
MAIN STORY
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate showed a marginal decline in February 2026, settling at 15.06% as the country continues to navigate a complex recovery from the extreme price spikes of the previous year. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Monday, revealing that while the long-term trend is downward, immediate price pressures are intensifying.
The most significant takeaway from the report is the vast improvement compared to February 2025, when inflation stood at a staggering 26.27%. However, the month-on-month data tells a more sobering story. The headline rate of 2.01% for February represents a nearly 5% increase in the speed of price hikes compared to January’s deflationary trend.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the primary drivers of inflation, contributing 6.03% to the year-on-year headline figure. On a monthly basis, food inflation spiked to 4.69%, a sharp reversal from the -6.02% recorded in January. The NBS specifically cited price increases in everyday items like beans, carrots, cassava tubers, millet flour, and dried ogbono.
Geographically, Kogi State recorded the highest headline inflation at 23.57%, while Katsina State enjoyed the lowest at 7.78%. Urban centers felt the pinch more acutely than rural areas, with urban inflation rising to 15.53% year-on-year.
While core inflation—which excludes volatile energy and farm produce—declined by nearly 10% compared to last year, the sudden monthly uptick in farm produce (3.7%) suggests that logistics costs and seasonal factors are beginning to bite once again.
WHAT’S BEING SAID
- “The February headline inflation showed a decrease of 0.04 per cent compared to the 15.10 per cent recorded in January,” stated the NBS Report.
- “In February, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in January.”
- “The increase in food inflation on a month-on-month basis was due to the increase in the average prices of beans, carrots, cassava tuber, and crayfish.”
WHAT’S NEXT
- Policy Response: The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is scheduled to meet later this month to review these figures, with analysts watching for potential interest rate adjustments to curb the monthly surge.
- Agricultural Harvests: Markets will be monitoring the upcoming planting season to see if increased local production can dampen the rising costs of beans and tubers noted in the February report.
- NBS March Report: The next CPI release in mid-April will confirm if the February monthly spike was a one-off event or the start of a new inflationary trend.
BOTTOM LINE
The Bottom Line is that while Nigeria has successfully halved its inflation rate compared to the crisis levels of early 2025, the battle against food costs is far from won. The sudden monthly jump in staples suggests that while “imported” inflation is cooling, domestic supply chain pressures remain a significant threat to the pockets of the average Nigerian.
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