The naira closed last week at 1,532.34 per dollar in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market after a choppy run that left the currency marginally weaker from the prior week despite intermittent central bank support.
The week opened with the naira rebounding to a four month high of 1,518.88 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market before easing to 1,530.25 and then 1,533.11 midweek. It later clawed back some ground to close around 1,532.34 on Friday. During the stretch the currency traded between about 1,515 and 1,538 in official dealings, while the parallel market hovered in a 1,535 to 1,544 band.
Analysts said central bank foreign exchange sales and gradually improving liquidity helped cap losses but underlying demand pressures remain. Cowry Assets reported mixed performance across market segments, noting a slight 0.06 per cent appreciation to 1,544 per dollar in the parallel window even as the official market finished the week in the red. The firm flagged continuing supply demand imbalances but said ongoing CBN intervention and FX reform progress could steady the currency.
AIICO Capital told clients the apex bank sold dollars early and late in the week to maintain relative stability and estimated external reserves rose by about 422 million dollars to 37.85 billion dollars. Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed average daily crude oil production excluding condensates climbed 3.6 per cent month on month to 1.51 million barrels per day in June, a development analysts say should support reserve accretion and FX liquidity.
With the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee meeting starting today, opinion is split. Doves cite easing inflation readings, a steadier naira, and reform traction to argue for a modest rate trim or corridor adjustment. Hawks warn that moving too soon could unwind FX gains amid food supply risks and fragile external inflows.
Comercio Partners said traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the communique and that policy guidance, more than the headline rate move, may set the near term tone for currency markets.
