The global telecommunications sector is set to generate $1.3 trillion in revenue by 2028, despite slowing growth and pricing challenges, according to a recent industry report.
The report states that total service revenue from fixed and mobile networks rises by 4.3% in 2023, reaching $1.14 trillion. However, the growth rate is slowing, with industry revenues expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% until 2028, remaining below the projected global inflation rate.
Nigeria’s telecommunications industry experiences significant growth in 2024, with total mobile service revenue reaching $7.6 billion. The sector is projected to expand at a CAGR of 8% between 2023 and 2028, ranking it among the fastest-growing telecom markets worldwide.
The report attributes this expansion to a rising number of mobile subscriptions rather than an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU). Fixed-line ARPU in Nigeria is expected to decline at a CAGR of -1.4%, while mobile subscriber numbers are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.8%.
The telecommunications industry faces difficulties in raising prices due to the growing commoditization of its core services. Despite continued investment in infrastructure, telecom companies struggle to strengthen pricing power.
Despite these challenges, the industry is poised to generate an additional $200 billion in incremental revenue by 2028. However, this moderate revenue growth increases pressure on telecom companies to maximize value from existing services and explore new revenue streams.
While overall telecom revenue growth remains stable, there are notable variations across regions and service categories:
- Fixed broadband and mobile subscriptions continue to expand, with projected CAGRs of 3.8% and 4.3%, respectively, from 2023 to 2028.
- Fixed voice subscriptions, however, are expected to decline at a CAGR of -1.8% during the same period.
- Emerging markets drive telecom growth, while more mature markets struggle with stagnation or decline.
Countries such as India, Nigeria, Egypt, and Kenya record above-average growth rates, while developed markets like Japan and Switzerland experience little to no growth. Mobile revenue growth also varies significantly, with Colombia leading at a 10.5% CAGR, followed by India and Argentina, while mature economies see slower or negative growth.
