Global oil benchmark Brent crude traded at $67.73 per barrel on Monday, February 16, 2026, maintaining a narrow lead over Nigeria’s federal budget assumptions. According to real-time market data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Trading Economics, the price reflects a minor 0.02% dip as traders balance geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against a massive projected global supply surplus.
Despite this slight soften, the current price remains nearly $3 above the $64.85 benchmark ratified by the Nigerian Senate in the 2026 Appropriation Bill.
The resilience of oil prices above the $65 mark is largely attributed to lingering diplomatic friction between the U.S. and Iran, which has kept a “risk premium” embedded in current futures.
However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC both highlight an underlying “supply glut” that could threaten this stability. Non-OPEC+ producers, led by the United States, Guyana, and Brazil, are expected to contribute to a world supply that exceeds demand by approximately 3.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) throughout 2026.
For Nigeria, the price advantage is overshadowed by a persistent “volume gap.” The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), released in February 2026, confirms that while Nigeria’s production rose to 1.459 mbpd in January, it still falls significantly short of the 1.84 mbpd target set in the 2026 budget.
This shortfall of nearly 400,000 barrels per day means that even with oil trading at a premium, the Federal Government faces a potential revenue deficit and may need to rely on the planned ₦17.88 trillion in new borrowings to fund the ₦58.47 trillion national spending plan.
The Senate Committee on Finance has expressed “cautious optimism” regarding the current market, noting that the $60 floor recently discussed in the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) provides a safety net if prices drop. However, with the Bank of Industry (BOI) recapitalization and massive infrastructure projects depending on oil receipts, the government is under pressure to close the production gap.
Analysts from major global firms like JPMorgan warn that severe weather disruptions in U.S. shale regions have provided temporary support, but a return to full global capacity could see Brent testing the $60 support level by mid-year.
 and Trading Economics, the price reflects a minor 0.02% dip as traders balance geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against a massive projected global supply surplus.){kind=link}