KEY POINTS
- Northwest raised its petrol ex-depot price to ₦1,380 per litre, above the Federal Government’s proposed ₦1,350-per-litre ceiling.
- Renewed Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude close to $110 per barrel, increasing pressure on Nigeria’s petroleum supply costs.
- MEMAN has warned that price caps could distort competition and discourage investment in the downstream sector.
MAIN STORY
Petrol’s ex-depot price climbed to ₦1,380 per litre on Monday, exceeding the Federal Government’s proposed ₦1,350-per-litre ceiling on ex-gantry or landing costs, as renewed Middle East tensions kept global crude oil prices elevated.
Data from PetroleumPrice.ng showed that Northwest recorded the highest price among four tracked depots after increasing its rate by ₦20 to ₦1,380 per litre, representing a 1.47 per cent rise.
Soroman raised its price by ₦5 to ₦1,355 per litre, while Aiteo increased its rate by ₦1 to ₦1,344. Fynefield maintained its price at ₦1,370 per litre. Aiteo remained the cheapest of the four depots, while Northwest was the most expensive.
The increases followed a rally in global crude oil prices late last week. Brent crude briefly touched $110 per barrel on Friday, October 16, for the first time since May, before settling 3.7 per cent higher at $109.86 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 3.5 per cent to $101.41 per barrel.
The rally was driven by escalating tensions and security threats in the Middle East, heightening concerns over shipping safety and global energy supplies. According to analytics firm Kpler, intensified attacks on commercial vessels reduced average crude flows from the Persian Gulf to about 8.5 million barrels per day last week, down from more than 20 million barrels per day in the previous week.
Brent crude subsequently eased by about 1.6 per cent to around $108 per barrel on Monday as investors assessed the prospect of increased Russian fuel exports following a United States sanctions waiver. Prices nevertheless remained close to their highest levels in five months.
The sustained elevation in crude costs is putting pressure on Nigeria’s imported petroleum products and complicating the government’s effort to keep petrol’s ex-gantry or landing cost at ₦1,350 per litre.
The development comes amid the government’s proposed price-modulation framework, under which petrol’s ex-gantry or landing cost would be capped at ₦1,350 per litre to moderate fluctuations in pump prices.
Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele had said the ceiling would be reviewed monthly. Under the proposed arrangement, refiners and importers would initially absorb costs above the limit and recover the shortfall when crude prices or exchange rates became more favourable.
The government said the arrangement was intended to moderate price fluctuations rather than reinstate the petrol subsidy removed in May 2023. It also announced a 30-day NNPC discount and other measures to cushion households and businesses against rising fuel costs.
However, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) has questioned the effectiveness of price caps in addressing the challenges facing the petroleum market.
MEMAN Executive Secretary and Chief Executive Officer Clement Isong said price capping distorts market prices, weakens competition and discourages investment in the downstream sector.
Speaking at a virtual webinar organised by MEMAN in partnership with S&P Global Energy, Isong called for transparent, market-driven pricing, efficient distribution, measures to address supply bottlenecks and lower operating costs. He argued that a well-structured market could improve competition and supply security without relying on imposed price controls or broad-based fuel subsidies.
Isong also urged better supply coordination, with domestic refinery output prioritised and imports used to bridge supply gaps. He called for clearer bulk supply arrangements covering product access, pricing, delivery schedules and contractual obligations.
S&P Global Energy said geopolitical tensions arising from the Middle East crisis, refining disruptions and changing global supply dynamics continued to affect petroleum product prices, particularly middle distillates such as diesel and aviation fuel. It called for regional pricing benchmarks that better reflect West African market conditions, supported by greater transparency, reliable market data and industry adoption.
Monday’s increase followed mixed ex-depot price movements in the week ended October 16, 2026, according to PetroleumPrice Marketplace.
In Lagos, MRS Tincan raised its price by ₦8 to ₦1,335 per litre, while Aiteo recorded the largest reduction, cutting its price by ₦6 to ₦1,344. Nipco and Wosbab each reduced their prices by ₦5 to ₦1,345, while A.A. Rano lowered its rate by ₦4 to ₦1,346. Matrix, Pinnacle and Rain Oil maintained their prices at ₦1,350 per litre.
Warri depots were largely stable, with Matrix, Parker and Keonamex holding their rates at ₦1,350 per litre, while Rain Oil reduced its price by ₦5 to ₦1,350.
In Port Harcourt, TSL and Sigmund each cut their prices by ₦1 to ₦1,344 per litre, while Masters maintained its rate at ₦1,345. Calabar recorded reductions at both depots reviewed, with Pivot cutting its price by ₦16 to ₦1,354 per litre and Matrix lowering its rate by ₦5 to ₦1,355.
THE ISSUES
The increase to ₦1,380 per litre highlights the challenge of moderating domestic petrol costs while international crude prices remain elevated.
A price ceiling can limit the immediate cost charged at a specified point in the supply chain, but its effectiveness depends on how costs above the threshold are handled. Under the proposed framework, refiners and importers would initially absorb the excess and recover it later when market conditions improve.
This raises questions about the size of any shortfall, the timing of recovery and suppliers’ ability to sustain operations if crude prices remain high. The supplied information does not establish whether the proposed ₦1,350 ceiling is already being enforced or how the government would address reported ex-depot prices above that level.
The distinction between ex-depot prices and pump prices is also important. Depot prices are one component of the cost of supplying petrol to filling stations. Retail prices may include additional distribution and operating costs, so a rise in ex-depot prices does not automatically translate into an identical increase at the pump.
MEMAN’s position reflects an alternative approach: allowing prices to respond to market conditions while improving supply efficiency and competition. The effect of either approach will depend on product availability, financing costs, distribution capacity and the terms of the government’s proposed framework.
WHAT’S NEXT
The immediate issue is how the Federal Government will implement its proposed ₦1,350-per-litre ceiling if crude prices and petroleum supply costs remain elevated.
The monthly review mechanism, the treatment of costs above the ceiling and the duration of the announced NNPC discount will be important in determining how the policy affects suppliers and downstream prices.
Developments in the Middle East, global crude flows and domestic refinery output will also influence Nigeria’s petroleum supply costs. The balance between domestic production and imports remains central to the market’s ability to respond to supply disruptions.
BOTTOM LINE
Petrol’s reported ex-depot price of ₦1,380 per litre has moved above the government’s proposed ₦1,350 ceiling, underscoring the difficulty of moderating domestic fuel costs while global crude prices remain high. The policy’s effectiveness will depend on how excess costs are handled and whether supply conditions improve without undermining competition or investment.
Sources: PetroleumPrice.ng, PetroleumPrice Marketplace, statements attributed to the Federal Government and MEMAN, and S&P Global Energy, as provided in the source material.
